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| #903386 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:47 PM 16.Sep.2017) TCDAT2 Hurricane Jose Discussion Number 47 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 1100 PM EDT Sat Sep 16 2017 Jose`s cloud pattern has not changed much since the previous advisory. The center is embedded within a fairly symmetric CDO but deep convection and the overall cloud shield is elongated northeastward due to some westerly shear. The latest satellite intensity estimates from TAFB, SAB, and UW/CIMSS range from 60 kt to 77 kt. Since the earlier aircraft data suggest that Jose`s intensity was near the midpoint of this range, a 70-kt initial wind speed is maintained for this advisory. The satellite fixes are little to the east of the previously estimated positions, but given the westerly shear the surface center is likely located a little west of these, resulting in an initial motion estimate of 360/5 kt. Jose is forecast to move northward at a slightly faster pace around the western portion of a subtropical ridge over the next few days. After that time, Jose is predicted to turn northeastward, then eastward as it enters the mid-latitude westerly flow. The 18Z GFS has trended a bit slower at days 4 and 5, so the NHC track forecast has been adjusted accordingly. The ECMWF and UKMET models remain to the west of the official forecast and it is still possible that Jose will track somewhat closer to the U.S. east coast than indicated here. Jose still has a small window of opportunity to strengthen before westerly shear increases, however, most of the intensity guidance now calls for gradual weakening to begin within 12-24 hours. Decreasing sea surface temperatures after 72 hours should cause an additional decrease in intensity later in the period. The NHC intensity prediction is near the higher statistical guidance during the first couple of days, and near the global model guidance later in the period. KEY MESSAGES: 1. The center of Jose is forecast to pass well east of the North Carolina coast on Monday, and tropical-storm-force winds are currently expected to remain offshore of the North Carolina Outer Banks. However, an additional increase in the size of the storm or a westward adjustment in the track forecast could bring tropical storm conditions closer to the Outer Banks, and interests there should monitor the progress of Jose through Monday. 2. While Jose is currently forecast to remain offshore of the U.S. coast from Virginia northward to New England, the large cyclone could cause some direct impacts to these areas and any deviation to the left of the NHC forecast track would increase the likelihood and magnitude of those impacts. Interests along the U.S. east coast from Virginia to New England should monitor the progress of Jose through the next several days. 3. Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas, the northern coasts of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico, and much of the U.S. east coast. These swells are likely to cause dangerous surf and rip current conditions for the next several days in these areas. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0300Z 29.2N 71.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 17/1200Z 30.0N 71.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 18/0000Z 31.4N 71.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 18/1200Z 32.9N 71.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 19/0000Z 34.4N 71.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 20/0000Z 37.7N 70.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 21/0000Z 40.2N 67.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 22/0000Z 40.5N 64.0W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown |
