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| #903390 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:02 PM 16.Sep.2017) TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Maria Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017 1100 PM AST Sat Sep 16 2017 Maria has become a little better organized this evening, with satellite imagery showing the formation of a small convective area near the center that may reflect the formation of an inner wind core. However, this has not yet resulted in intensification, as various subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates remain about 45 kt. The longer-term initial motion is 280/14, while recent satellite imagery suggests the system may be turning a little more to the right. A mid-level ridge to the north of the cyclone is expected to gradually weaken through the forecast period, which would allow Maria to move generally west-northwestward with a decrease in forward speed during the next five days. The track guidance is tightly clustered, and the new forecast track is nudged only slightly to the left of the previous track based on the initial location. The forecast continues to take the core of Maria near the Leeward Islands in 48 to 72 hours, close to the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico in about 96 hr, and near eastern Hispaniola at about 120 h. Maria is expected to remain in an environment of good moisture, light shear, and warm sea surface temperatures for at least the next 4 days. This should result in steady to rapid intensification. The new intensity forecast is similar to the previous forecast in calling for Maria to become a hurricane in 24 h and a major hurricane in 72 h, and it lies at the upper edge of the intensity guidance. However, rapid intensification is a distinct possibility, and it would be no surprise if Maria got significantly stronger than currently forecast. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Maria is expected to strengthen and affect portions of the Leeward Islands as a hurricane early next week, bringing dangerous wind, storm surge and rainfall hazards. Hurricane and tropical storm watches have been issued for portions of the Lesser Antilles, and additional watches will likely be issued on Sunday. 2. Maria could also affect the British and U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico by mid week as a dangerous major hurricane, and hurricane watches could be issued for these islands as early as Sunday. Interests in these areas should monitor the progress of Maria and follow any advice given by local officials. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0300Z 12.5N 53.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 17/1200Z 13.1N 55.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 18/0000Z 13.9N 57.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 18/1200Z 14.6N 59.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 19/0000Z 15.3N 60.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 20/0000Z 16.5N 63.5W 105 KT 120 MPH 96H 21/0000Z 18.0N 66.5W 110 KT 125 MPH...COAST OF PUERTO RICO 120H 22/0000Z 19.5N 69.0W 100 KT 115 MPH...OVER WATER $$ Forecaster Beven |
