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| #903416 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:53 AM 17.Sep.2017) TCDAT2 Hurricane Jose Discussion Number 48 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 500 AM EDT Sun Sep 17 2017 The satellite presentation of Jose continues to reveal little change in the overall cloud structure since yesterday afternoon. The 25-30 kt of westerly shear is inhibiting any further development of the inner core. Cloud tops have warmed near the center and the cyclone appears to be tilted toward the northeast with height in earlier microwave images. Dvorak satellite intensity estimates remain unchanged from the last advisory, and the initial intensity is held at 70 kt. Due to the expected shear persisting through the entire forecast period, the statistical and dynamical intensity guidance no longer indicate any hint of strengthening, even in the short term. Accordingly, The NHC forecast reflects little change in strength through the 48 hour period, then shows gradual weakening through 5 days. The initial motion is estimated to be northward, or 360/7 kt. The cyclone is expected to continue on this northward track, along the western periphery of the Bermuda high, through 48 hours. Afterward, Jose should gradually turn north-northeastward to northeastward on days 3 and 4. Near the end of the forecast period, Jose is forecast to slowly turn eastward within the mid-latitude, mid-level westerly flow associated with shortwave trough moving over the Canadian Maritimes. The official forecast has been adjusted slightly to the west, closer to the HFIP Corrected Consensus, and near a blend of the UKMET, and ECMWF which have also shifted a bit westward. KEY MESSAGES: 1. The center of Jose is forecast to pass well east of the North Carolina coast on Monday, and tropical-storm-force winds are currently expected to remain offshore of the North Carolina Outer Banks. However, an additional increase in the size of the storm or a westward adjustment in the track forecast could bring tropical storm conditions closer to the Outer Banks, and interests there should monitor the progress of Jose through Monday. 2. While Jose is currently forecast to remain offshore of the U.S. coast from Virginia northward to New England, the large cyclone could cause some direct impacts to these areas and any deviation to the left of the NHC forecast track would increase the likelihood and magnitude of those impacts. Interests along the U.S. east coast from Virginia to New England should monitor the progress of Jose through the next several days. 3. Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas, the northern coasts of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico, and much of the U.S. east coast. These swells are likely to cause dangerous surf and rip current conditions for the next several days in these areas. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0900Z 30.0N 71.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 17/1800Z 31.0N 71.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 18/0600Z 32.5N 71.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 18/1800Z 34.0N 71.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 19/0600Z 35.6N 71.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 20/0600Z 38.6N 70.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 21/0600Z 40.0N 67.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 22/0600Z 39.8N 64.8W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Roberts |
