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| #903419 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:55 AM 17.Sep.2017) TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Lee Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142017 500 AM AST Sun Sep 17 2017 Lee remains sheared this morning, with the center of circulation just beneath the northern edge of the cloud mass. Consequently, the initial intensity is held at 35 kt and agrees with the subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB. The cyclone is forecast to remain in an upper wind environment of strong west-northwesterly shear through the forecast period. The global and statistical models all show no intensification of Lee through 36 hours or so, followed by a gradual weakening trend through day 5. In fact, the GFS and ECMWF show dissipation in less than 4 days. Only the HWRF hurricane model indicates modest strengthening around the 48 hour period. The official forecast is similar to the previous package and reflects Lee degenerating into a remnant low in 4 days. The initial motion is estimated to be westward, or 280/6 kt. The cyclone is currently moving within the easterly mid-level flow produced by a subtropical ridge anchored to the north. This ridge is forecast to erode in 36 hours, allowing Lee to gradually turn west-northwestward and continue tracking in this fashion through 5 days. A slight adjustment to the right of the previous advisory was made to lie more closely to the HCCA technique and a blend of the ECMWF and GFS global models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0900Z 13.0N 35.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 17/1800Z 13.1N 36.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 18/0600Z 13.4N 37.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 18/1800Z 14.2N 39.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 19/0600Z 15.0N 41.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 20/0600Z 17.1N 44.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 21/0600Z 18.9N 48.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 22/0600Z 20.3N 52.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Roberts |
