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| #903446 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:49 AM 17.Sep.2017) TCDAT4 Tropical Depression Lee Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142017 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 17 2017 An 1144 UTC ASCAT pass indicated that Lee is no longer producing tropical-storm-force winds. In addition, deep convection is fizzling, and there are only a few convective elements remaining in a band to the south of the center. Lee is downgraded to a tropical depression with 30-kt winds, and even that could be generous given what the ASCAT data is showing. Since the cyclone is already struggling in its current environment, it probably won't do much better going forward since vertical shear is expected to increase to 30 kt in about 24 hours. Therefore, gradual weakening is expected, and Lee could degenerate into a remnant low by 48 hours, if not sooner. The GFS and ECMWF both dissipate the low in 3 to 4 days, so the new NHC forecast now shows that occurring by day 4. Lee is moving westward, or 280/7 kt. Even though the ridge to the north of the cyclone is not very strong, Lee's weak nature should cause it to be steered generally westward or west-northwestward for the next 3 days before it dissipates. The NHC track forecast remains just south of the various consensus aids, and it is not too different from the previous forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/1500Z 13.0N 36.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 18/0000Z 13.2N 37.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 18/1200Z 13.8N 39.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 19/0000Z 14.7N 41.2W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 19/1200Z 15.7N 42.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 20/1200Z 17.5N 45.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 21/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg |
