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| #903451 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:59 AM 17.Sep.2017) TCDAT2 Hurricane Jose Discussion Number 49 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 1100 AM EDT Sun Sep 17 2017 The Air Force Hurricane Hunters have been investigating Jose this morning and found flight-level winds of 86 kt, SFMR surface winds of 89 kt, and a minimum pressure of 967 mb. Based on these data, the initial wind speed is raised to 80 kt for this advisory. Even though the winds are stronger than earlier, the hurricane does not have an improved appearance in satellite images. In fact, the Air Force meteorologist onboard the aircraft mentioned that the inner core of Jose is asymmetric and the overall appearance is lopsided. Jose is expected to be in an environment of strong southwesterly wind shear while it is over the warm Gulf Stream waters during the next couple of days. Although the shear is forecast to lessen beyond that time, the hurricane will likely have crossed the north wall of the Gulf Stream by then, where the waters are much cooler. These environmental conditions favor a slow weakening trend during the next several days, and that is reflected in the NHC intensity forecast. It should be noted, however, that despite the expected weakening, the models suggest that Jose`s outer wind field will expand, which is typical for tropical cyclones that move into the mid-latitudes. The hurricane is moving northward at 8 kt on the west side of a subtropical ridge. This motion is expected to continue for 2 to 3 days while the steering pattern persists. Thereafter, a trough currently over central Canada is expected to move eastward and should cause Jose to turn to the northeast and east at a slow forward speed in the 3- to 5-day time frame. The NHC track forecast has been shifted slightly to the left of the previous one, mainly because of the more westward initial position. KEY MESSAGES: 1. The center of Jose is forecast to pass well east of the North Carolina coast on Monday, and tropical-storm-force winds are currently expected to remain offshore of the North Carolina Outer Banks. However, an additional increase in the size of the storm or a westward adjustment in the track forecast could bring tropical storm conditions closer to the Outer Banks, and interests there should monitor the progress of Jose through Monday. 2. While the center of Jose is currently forecast to remain offshore of the U.S. coast, the large cyclone could cause some direct impacts from Virginia northward to New England, and any deviation to the left of the NHC forecast track would increase the likelihood and magnitude of those impacts. Interests along the U.S. east coast from Virginia to New England should monitor the progress of Jose through the next several days. Tropical storm watches could be required for a portion of this area later today. 3. Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas, and much of the U.S. east coast. These swells are likely to cause dangerous surf and rip current conditions for the next several days in these areas. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/1500Z 31.0N 71.9W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 18/0000Z 32.0N 71.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 18/1200Z 33.6N 71.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 19/0000Z 35.2N 71.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 19/1200Z 36.7N 71.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 20/1200Z 39.6N 70.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 21/1200Z 40.0N 67.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 22/1200Z 39.5N 65.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Cangialosi |
