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| #903483 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:46 PM 17.Sep.2017) TCDAT2 Hurricane Jose Discussion Number 50 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 500 PM EDT Sun Sep 17 2017 The satellite appearance of Jose has generally changed little during the past several hours. Microwave data indicate that the center of circulation is located on the south side of the main area of deep convection, likely due to strong southerly shear. The current intensity is held at 80 kt based on the earlier aircraft data. The initial wind radii have been adjusted outward in accordance with the ASCAT data from a few hours ago. The strong wind shear currently affecting Jose is expected to continue for another day or so. Although the shear is expected to slacken beyond that time, Jose is forecast to cross the north wall of the Gulf Stream current by then and move into a progressively drier environment. These conditions should cause a slow weakening trend through the period, and the NHC intensity forecast is largely an update of the previous one. It should be noted, however, that despite the expected weakening, the models suggest that Jose`s outer wind field will expand, which is typical for tropical cyclones that move into the mid-latitudes. The hurricane continues to move northward at 8 kt on the west side of a subtropical ridge. This general motion is expected to persist for the next 2 to 3 days while the steering pattern holds. Thereafter, a turn to the northeast and then east is predicted as a trough currently over central Canada moves closer to Jose. This trough, however, is not expected to pick up Jose, and instead the cyclone is expected to meander or drift southward by the end of the forecast period. The 5-day forecast position has been adjusted to the southwest of the previous NHC prediction, but otherwise only minor changes were made. The Air Force and NOAA Hurricane Hunters will both be investigating Jose this evening. This valuable data will help assess the hurricane`s initial intensity and structure, and assist the models in determining the future path and intensity of the hurricane. KEY MESSAGES: 1. While the center of Jose is currently forecast to remain offshore of the U.S. coast, the large cyclone could cause some direct impacts from Delaware northward to New England, and any deviation to the left of the NHC forecast track would increase the likelihood and magnitude of those impacts. A tropical storm watch is now in effect from the Delaware coast to southeastern Massachusetts. Interests elsewhere along the U.S. east coast from North Carolina to New England should monitor the progress of Jose through the next several days. 2. Minor to moderate coastal flooding is possible from Delaware to southern New England during the next several days. Please see products issued by local National Weather Service forecast offices. 3. Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas, and much of the U.S. east coast. These swells are likely to cause dangerous surf and rip current conditions for the next several days in these areas. 4. Jose will produce heavy rain as it passes near southern New England and the mid-Atlantic on Tuesday and Wednesday. Total accumulations of three to five inches are expected over eastern Long Island, southern Rhode Island, and southeast Massachusetts, including Martha`s Vineyard and Nantucket. Based on the current forecast, the risk of flooding will be limited in scope. Any deviation to the left of the forecast track, however, could bring heavier and more widespread rainfall to southern New England, Long Island, New York City, and New Jersey. If this deviation were to occur, the risk of urban flash flooding and some river flooding would increase. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/2100Z 31.5N 71.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 18/0600Z 32.7N 71.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 18/1800Z 34.3N 71.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 19/0600Z 35.9N 71.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 19/1800Z 37.7N 71.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 20/1800Z 40.1N 69.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 21/1800Z 39.7N 67.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 22/1800Z 38.5N 67.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Cangialosi |
