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| #903487 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:52 PM 17.Sep.2017) TCDAT4 Tropical Depression Lee Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142017 500 PM AST Sun Sep 17 2017 A small burst of deep convection re-formed near Lee's center, but since the earlier ASCAT pass barely showed 30 kt, that will remain the initial intensity. Increasing shear and a dry mid-level environment will continue to take a toll on Lee during the next few days. Gradual weakening is still expected, and Lee could lose organized deep convection by 36 hours, if not sooner. The GFS and ECMWF models degenerate the system into a surface trough by day 3, and dissipation is now indicated in the NHC forecast at that time. Lee is moving westward, or 280/7 kt, but it should turn west-northwestward soon due to the weakness of the subtropical ridge to its north. A west-northwestward or northwestward motion should continue until Lee dissipates on day 3. Little change was required to the updated NHC track forecast, which lies close to the consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/2100Z 13.2N 37.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 18/0600Z 13.5N 38.6W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 18/1800Z 14.3N 40.3W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 19/0600Z 15.4N 41.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 19/1800Z 16.6N 43.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg |
