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| #903561 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:56 AM 18.Sep.2017) TCDAT2 Hurricane Jose Discussion Number 52 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 500 AM EDT Mon Sep 18 2017 Jose is certainly looking less tropical characteristically this morning. The 25 to 30 kt of southwesterly shear indicated in the CIMSS shear product and the SHIPS model has separated the fragmented inner core of Jose farther to the northeast of the partially exposed surface circulation center. What remains of the deep convective banding features of the cyclone are confined to the north and east portions. The initial intensity is lowered a bit to 75 kt based on the deteriorating cloud pattern and a blend of the subjective T-number Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB. The aforementioned deep-layer shear and decreasing oceanic temperatures are forecast to induce a slow weakening trend through day 5. Because of the significantly cooler water north of the Gulf Stream and a persistently harsh upper-level wind environment, Jose should lose its tropical characteristics around day 4, if not sooner. The official intensity forecast follows suit and is weighed heavily on the global models solution and is close to, but a little above, the SHIPS guidance. The initial motion is a little uncertain because of the significant cloud structure change during the past 6 hours. Shortwave and enhanced BD-curve infrared imagery reveal a more north-northeastward short term motion, with the center possibly as far east as 71.1W. However, an earlier GPM microwave image and the satellite classification fixes indicated a position bit farther to the west near 71.2 to 71.5W. As a compromise, I elected to split the initial position between the two solutions which yields a northward motion, at about 360/8 kt. There are no changes to the forecast track philosophy. Jose should continue northward during the next day or so, then turn north-northeastward Wednesday as a mid-tropospheric trough passes north of the hurricane. After the shortwave trough moves northeastward in 3 days, Jose is forecast to drift eastward, then turn gradually southeastward and southward around day 4 as high pressure builds over the northeastern United States. The NHC forecast track has been nudged slightly to the right of the previous advisory, due primarily to the short term north-northeastward motion, and is based on a blend of the HCCA and GFEX (ECMWF/GFS) guidance. KEY MESSAGES: 1. While the center of Jose is currently forecast to remain offshore of the U.S. coast, the large cyclone could cause some direct impacts from Delaware northward to New England, and any deviation to the left of the NHC forecast track would increase the likelihood and magnitude of those impacts. A Tropical Storm Watch is now in effect from the Delaware coast to southeastern Massachusetts. Interests elsewhere along the U.S. east coast from North Carolina to New England should monitor the progress of Jose through the next several days. 2. Minor to moderate coastal flooding is possible from Delaware to southern New England during the next several days. Please see products issued by local National Weather Service forecast offices. 3. Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas, and much of the U.S. east coast. These swells are likely to cause dangerous surf and rip current conditions for the next several days in these areas. 4. Jose will produce heavy rain as it passes near southern New England and the mid-Atlantic on Tuesday and Wednesday. Total accumulations of 3 to 5 inches are expected over eastern Long Island, southeast Connecticut, Rhode Island, and southeast Massachusetts, including Martha`s Vineyard and Nantucket. Based on the current forecast, the risk of flooding will be limited in scope. Any deviation to the left of the forecast track, however, could bring heavier and more widespread rainfall to southern New England, Long Island, New York City, and New Jersey. If this deviation were to occur, the risk of urban flash flooding and some river flooding would increase. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0900Z 33.0N 71.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 18/1800Z 34.2N 71.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 19/0600Z 35.8N 71.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 19/1800Z 37.4N 71.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 20/0600Z 38.8N 70.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 21/0600Z 39.9N 68.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 22/0600Z 39.2N 68.1W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 23/0600Z 38.3N 68.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Roberts |
