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| #903593 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:43 AM 18.Sep.2017) TCDAT4 Tropical Depression Lee Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142017 1100 AM AST Mon Sep 18 2017 After being nearly devoid of thunderstorm activity overnight, a burst of deep convection has developed near and to the east of the center this morning. The initial intensity is held at 30 kt, in agreement with earlier ASCAT data. Despite the development of deep convection, the overall forecast reasoning for Lee's future intensity is unchanged. Lee is expected to be embedded within very strong westerly to northwesterly shear during the next couple of days. These hostile winds, combined with a dry environment, should cause Lee to weaken and become a remnant low in about 24 hours. The global models suggest that Lee could open up into a trough within the next 2 to 3 days. Since the models remain in good agreement, and the NHC intensity forecast is basically the same as the previous one. Lee is moving west-northwestward at 12 kt on the southwest side of a mid-level high pressure system. A turn to the northwest with a decrease in forward speed is expected by tonight as the tropical depression moves toward a large-scale trough. A continued northwestward motion is forecast until the system dissipates over the central Atlantic. There is not much spread in the model solutions, and the NHC track forecast lies near the middle of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/1500Z 14.1N 40.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 19/0000Z 14.8N 41.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 19/1200Z 16.0N 43.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 20/0000Z 17.4N 44.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 20/1200Z 18.9N 45.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 21/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi |
