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| #903596 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:53 AM 18.Sep.2017) TCDAT2 Hurricane Jose Discussion Number 53 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 1100 AM EDT Mon Sep 18 2017 Satellite images indicate that Jose is losing some tropical characteristics. The cloud pattern of the hurricane is asymmetric with much of the central convection and convective bands confined to the north of the center. The NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunters have found that Jose is weaker, with maximum flight-level winds of 78 kt and maximum SFMR surface winds of 58 kt observed. Based on these data, the initial wind speed is lowered to 65 kt. Jose should remain over warm Gulf Stream waters during the next 24 hours, but it will also be in an environment of strong south-southwesterly shear, so little change in strength is expected during that time. Shortly thereafter, the hurricane is forecast to cross the north wall of the Gulf Stream and move into a progressively drier air mass. These unfavorable conditions should cause a slow weakening trend and lead to post-tropical transition, which is now expected to be complete by day 3. The NHC intensity forecast is a little lower than the previous one in the short term to account for the slightly lower initial wind speed. The hurricane has been wobbling around, but the general motion has been northward at 8 kt. A mid-level ridge over the western Atlantic should continue to steer Jose northward at about the same forward speed during the next day or two. Thereafter, a trough currently over central Canada is expected to cause Jose to turn eastward in the 2 to 3 day time frame. The trough is then expected to lift out, leaving Jose in weak steering currents and causing the cyclone to drift southward by the end of the forecast period. Only minor changes were made to the previous NHC track forecast, and this prediction lies near a blend of the GFS and ECMWF models. KEY MESSAGES: 1. While the center of Jose is currently forecast to remain offshore of the U.S. coast, the large cyclone is expected to cause some direct impacts in portions of New England, and a tropical storm warning has been issued for the coast of Rhode Island and a part of the Massachusetts coast, including Cape Cod. Any deviation to the left of the NHC forecast track would increase the likelihood and magnitude of impacts elsewhere along the U.S. east coast from Delaware to southern New England, where a tropical storm watch is in effect. 2. Minor to moderate coastal flooding is possible from Delaware to southern New England during the next several days. Please see products issued by local National Weather Service forecast offices. 3. Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas, and much of the U.S. east coast. These swells are likely to cause dangerous surf and rip current conditions for the next several days in these areas. 4. Jose will produce heavy rain as it passes near southern New England and the mid-Atlantic on Tuesday and Wednesday. Total accumulations of 3 to 5 inches are expected over eastern Long Island, southeast Connecticut, southern Rhode Island, and southeast Massachusetts, including Martha`s Vineyard and Nantucket. While the risk of flooding is currently limited in scope, any deviation to the left of the forecast track, could bring heavier and more widespread rainfall to southern New England, Long Island, New York City, and New Jersey. If this deviation were to occur, the risk of urban flash flooding and some river flooding would increase. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/1500Z 33.9N 71.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 19/0000Z 35.1N 71.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 19/1200Z 36.7N 71.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 20/0000Z 38.2N 70.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 20/1200Z 39.4N 70.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 21/1200Z 40.0N 67.9W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 22/1200Z 39.1N 68.3W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 23/1200Z 38.5N 68.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Cangialosi |
