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| #903644 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:56 PM 18.Sep.2017) TCDAT2 Hurricane Jose Discussion Number 54 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 500 PM EDT Mon Sep 18 2017 The cloud pattern of Jose has not changed much during the day. The hurricane continues to lose some tropical characteristics, and it remains asymmetric with most of the convective bands located to the north of the center. The initial wind speed is held at 65 kt based on the earlier aircraft data. Another Air Force Hurricane Hunter plane is scheduled to investigate Jose this evening and will provide a better assessment of the strength and structure of the hurricane. Jose is expected to remain over the warm Gulf Stream waters for about another day, so even though the shear is high, the hurricane will likely maintain its intensity during that time. Shortly thereafter, Jose is forecast to cross the north wall of the Gulf Stream and move into a progressively drier air mass. These unfavorable conditions should cause a slow weakening trend and lead to post-tropical transition, which is expected to be complete by day 3. The NHC intensity forecast is the same as the previous one and in good agreement with the consensus aids. The hurricane continues to wobble around, but the general motion is northward at 9 kt. The overall track forecast philosophy is unchanged. A continued northward motion at about the same forward speed is expected during the next day or so while the hurricane remains on the west side of a mid-level ridge over the western Atlantic. Thereafter, a trough currently over central Canada is expected to cause Jose to turn eastward in the 2 to 3 day time frame. The trough is then expected to lift out, leaving Jose in weak steering currents and causing the cyclone to drift to the south or southwest at the end of the forecast period. Only minor changes were made to the previous NHC track forecast, and this one lies near the various consensus aids. KEY MESSAGES: 1. While the center of Jose is currently forecast to remain offshore of the U.S. coast, the large cyclone is expected to cause some direct impacts in portions of New England, and a tropical storm warning is in effect for the coast of Rhode Island and a part of the Massachusetts coast, including Cape Cod. Any deviation to the left of the NHC forecast track would increase the likelihood and magnitude of impacts elsewhere along the U.S. east coast from Delaware to southern New England. 2. Minor to moderate coastal flooding is possible from Delaware to southern New England during the next several days. Please see products issued by local National Weather Service forecast offices. 3. Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas, and much of the U.S. east coast. These swells are likely to cause dangerous surf and rip current conditions for the next several days in these areas. 4. Jose will produce heavy rain as it passes near southern New England and the mid-Atlantic on Tuesday and Wednesday. Total accumulations of 3 to 5 inches are expected over eastern Long Island, southeast Connecticut, southern Rhode Island, and southeast Massachusetts, including Martha`s Vineyard and Nantucket. While the risk of flooding is currently limited in scope, any deviation to the left of the forecast track, could bring heavier and more widespread rainfall to southern New England, Long Island, New York City, and New Jersey. If this deviation were to occur, the risk of urban flash flooding and some river flooding would increase. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/2100Z 34.8N 71.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 19/0600Z 35.9N 71.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 19/1800Z 37.4N 70.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 20/0600Z 38.9N 70.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 20/1800Z 39.9N 68.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 21/1800Z 40.0N 67.1W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 22/1800Z 39.4N 67.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 23/1800Z 38.5N 68.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Cangialosi |
