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| #903708 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:47 AM 19.Sep.2017) TCDAT2 Hurricane Jose Discussion Number 56 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 500 AM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017 Satellite images indicate that a small area of deep convection is persisting near the center of Jose. While it doesn`t look particularly tropical at the moment, there is no evidence of fronts connected to the center and the system is definitely warm core. Thus, Jose will stay a tropical cyclone. The initial wind speed remains 65 kt based on the previous reconnaissance mission. Some weakening is likely to begin within 24 hours due to Jose moving over colder waters. Continued weakening is in the forecast due to the marginal water temperatures, although the system could eventually move over the warm Gulf Stream again if it takes a southward turn in the right spot. Thus, the intensity forecast is about the same as the previous one through 72 hours, then is leveled off at 45 kt to account for the warmer water possibility. Jose continues to move erratically northward, with the center wobbling due to the convective bursts. The hurricane should turn toward the northeast and east over the next two days as it moves around a ridge over the western Atlantic. After that point, the forecast becomes more uncertain, with some models curving the system south and west under a building high over the northeastern United States, and others drifting the cyclone eastward just out of the reach of the ridge. With the guidance shifting eastward on this cycle, the official forecast will follow the trend, although not shift as strongly to the east since it wouldn`t take a very large track error to either catch or miss that ridge. KEY MESSAGES: 1. While the center of Jose is currently forecast to remain offshore of the U.S. coast, the large cyclone is expected to cause some direct impacts in portions of New England, and a tropical storm warning is in effect for the coast of Rhode Island and a part of the Massachusetts coast, including Cape Cod. Any deviation to the left of the NHC forecast track would increase the likelihood and magnitude of impacts elsewhere along the U.S. east coast from Delaware to southern New England. 2. Minor to moderate coastal flooding is possible from Delaware to southern New England during the next several days. Please see products issued by local National Weather Service forecast offices. 3. Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas, and much of the U.S. east coast. These swells are likely to cause dangerous surf and rip current conditions for the next several days in these areas. 4. Jose will produce heavy rain over a small part of southern New England and eastern Long Island as it passes offshore of these locations on Tuesday and Wednesday. Total accumulations of 1 to 3 inches are expected over eastern Long Island, southeast Connecticut, southern Rhode Island, and southeast Massachusetts. 3 to 5 inches are expected for Martha`s Vineyard, Nantucket and Cape Cod. This rainfall could cause isolated flooding. Elsewhere, Jose is expected to produce light rainfall with little risk of flooding over the mid-Atlantic coast and the northeast states. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0900Z 36.0N 71.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 19/1800Z 37.1N 71.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 20/0600Z 38.5N 70.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 20/1800Z 39.6N 68.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 21/0600Z 40.0N 67.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 22/0600Z 39.3N 66.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 23/0600Z 38.7N 66.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 24/0600Z 38.5N 67.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Blake |
