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| #903734 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:55 AM 19.Sep.2017) TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Jose Intermediate Advisory Number 56A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 800 AM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017 ...JOSE STILL A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE... ...EXPECTED TO PRODUCE DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS... SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...36.3N 71.6W ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM ENE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA ABOUT 350 MI...560 KM SSW OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.73 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Watch Hill to Hull * Block Island * Martha`s Vineyard * Nantucket A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * The coast of Long Island from Fire Island Inlet to Port Jefferson * New Haven to Watch Hill A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 to 36 hours. Interests elsewhere along the U.S. east coast from North Carolina northward to New England should monitor the progress of Jose. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Jose was located by an an Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft near latitude 36.3 North, longitude 71.6 West. Jose is moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue through today with a turn to the northeast anticipated tonight. On the forecast track, the center of Jose is forecast to pass well offshore of the Delmarva peninsula later today, pass well to the east of the New Jersey coast on Wednesday, and pass offshore of southeastern Massachusetts by Thursday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected today, but Jose should begin to gradually weaken on Wednesday. Jose is a large tropical cyclone. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm- force winds extend outward up to 310 miles (500 km). A ship located more than 200 miles southwest of the center of Jose recently reported a sustained wind of 40 mph (65 km/h), and NOAA Buoy 44014, located east of the Virginia-North Carolina border or about 160 miles west of the center, also reported a sustained wind of 40 mph (65 km/h). The minimum central pressure recently measured by the reconnaissance aircraft was 973 mb (28.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the warning area early Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area beginning tonight. SURF: Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas, and much of the U.S. east coast. These swells are likely to cause dangerous surf and rip current conditions for the next several days in these areas. For more information, please consult products from your local weather office. RAINFALL: Jose is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches over eastern Long Island, southeast Connecticut, southern Rhode Island, and southeast Massachusetts. Rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches are expected for Martha`s Vineyard, Nantucket and Cape Cod through Wednesday. This rainfall could cause isolated flooding. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart |
