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| #903785 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:59 PM 19.Sep.2017) TCDAT2 Hurricane Jose Discussion Number 58 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 500 PM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017 Satellite imagery indicate that Jose`s cloud pattern has improved since the previous advisory. Curved band features have become more evident in all quadrants and the upper-level outflow has also expanded and become more anticyclonic. Jose actually looks more like a tropical cyclone now. Satellite intensity estimates have increased and were a consensus T3.5/55 kt at 1800Z. Since that time, the convective pattern has continued to improve, including a burst of convection with cloud tops colder than -60C having developed near and over the well-defined low-level center. Given the much improved satellite cloud pattern, the intensity will remain 65 kt. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Jose by 2300Z. Jose has made the much anticipated turn toward the north-northeast and is now moving 025/07 kt. There is no significant change to the previous track forecast or reasoning. The latest NHC model guidance remains in good agreement on Jose slowing down and turning toward the northeast by Wednesday morning, followed by a turn toward the east on Thursday as the cyclone moves around the north side of deep-layer ridge. During the 72-120 hour period, a high-latitude ridge is forecast to build to the north of Jose, forcing the cyclone slowly southward and southwestward over the far North Atlantic. The new official forecast track lies a little to the east of the consensus models, closer to the ECMWF solution. The center and much of the inner core of Jose will be moving over 21-22C SSTs by 36-48 h. However, a large portion of the hurricane`s circulation will still be located over much warmer water, which will maintain a long, southerly fetch of unstable air into and to the north of the center. Since the vertical wind shear is expected to be 20 kt or less, only gradual weakening is expected as per the previous intensity forecasts, and the intensity models IVCN and HCCA. The 34-kt wind radii were increased slightly in the northwestern quadrant based on 14-15Z ASCAT scatterometer wind data, offshore buoy reports, and a 40-45 kt wind report from ship VRGH3. KEY MESSAGES: 1. While the center of Jose is forecast to remain offshore of the U.S. east coast, the large cyclone is expected to cause some direct impacts in portions of New England, and a tropical storm warning is in effect for Cape Cod, Block Island, Martha`s Vineyard, and Nantucket. Any deviation to the left of the NHC forecast track would increase the likelihood and magnitude of impacts along the coast from Long Island to southern New England. 2. Minor to moderate coastal flooding is possible from Delaware to southern New England during the next several days. Please see products issued by local National Weather Service forecast offices. 3. Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas, and much of the U.S. east coast. These swells are likely to cause dangerous surf and rip current conditions for the next several days in these areas. 4. Jose will produce heavy rain over a small part of southern New England and eastern Long Island as it passes offshore of these locations on Tuesday and Wednesday. Total accumulations of 1 to 3 inches are expected over eastern Long Island, southeast Connecticut, southern Rhode Island, and southeast Massachusetts. 3 to 5 inches are expected for Martha`s Vineyard, Nantucket, and Cape Cod. This rainfall could cause isolated flooding. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/2100Z 37.2N 71.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 20/0600Z 38.2N 70.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 20/1800Z 39.2N 69.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 21/0600Z 39.7N 68.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 21/1800Z 39.5N 67.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 22/1800Z 39.0N 67.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 23/1800Z 38.6N 68.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 24/1800Z 38.3N 69.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Stewart |
