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| #903817 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:50 PM 19.Sep.2017) TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Jose Discussion Number 59 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 1100 PM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017 An Air Force plane once again investigated Jose tonight, and although the central pressure remained low, near 973 mb, the surface winds were gradually decreasing and do not support hurricane strength. This is also consistent with the latest Dvorak T-numbers which indicated weakening. On this basis, the initial intensity has been lowered to 60 kt. Although the shear is not too high, Jose is moving over cool waters. This should result in additional weakening and Jose is likely to become a post-tropical cyclone in about 48 hours. Fixes from a reconnaissance plane and satellite indicate that Jose is moving toward the northeast or 040 degrees at 8 kt. Currently, Jose in embedded within the mid-latitude southwesterly flow, but most of the global models forecast the development of a ridge to the north in two days. This new pattern should block the motion of the storm and Jose should begin to meander. The NHC forecast is very similar to the previous one and follows the ECMWF model and the HFIP corrected consensus model HCCA. It also uses the input from NOAA Ocean Prediction Center. KEY MESSAGES: 1. While the center of Jose is forecast to remain offshore of the U.S. east coast, the large cyclone is expected to cause some direct impacts in portions of New England, and a tropical storm warning is in effect for Cape Cod, Block Island, Martha`s Vineyard, and Nantucket. Any deviation to the left of the NHC forecast track would increase the likelihood and magnitude of impacts along the coast from Long Island to southern New England. 2. Minor to moderate coastal flooding is possible from Delaware to southern New England during the next several days. Please see products issued by local National Weather Service forecast offices. 3. Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas, and much of the U.S. east coast. These swells are likely to cause dangerous surf and rip current conditions for the next several days in these areas. 4. Jose will produce total rainfall accumulations of 1 to 3 inches are expected over eastern Rhode Island and southeast Massachusetts. 2 to 4 inches are expected in Nantucket and Cape Cod, and 3 to 5 inches in Martha`s Vineyard. This rainfall could cause isolated flash flooding. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0300Z 37.9N 70.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 20/1200Z 38.8N 69.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 21/0000Z 39.6N 68.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 21/1200Z 39.7N 67.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 22/0000Z 39.5N 67.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 23/0000Z 38.7N 69.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 24/0000Z 38.5N 70.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 25/0000Z 38.5N 70.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Avila |
