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| #903923 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:40 PM 20.Sep.2017) TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Maria Advisory Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017 500 PM AST Wed Sep 20 2017 ...CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO... ...CONDITIONS NOW DETERIORATING OVER EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.8N 67.3W ABOUT 25 MI...45 KM NNW OF AGUADILLA PUERTO RICO ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM E OF PUNTA CANA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB...28.26 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Hurricane Warning for the U.S. Virgin Islands has been discontinued. The government of Antigua and Barbuda has discontinued the Hurricane Warning for the British Virgin Islands. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Puerto Rico, Culebra, and Vieques * Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to Puerto Plata * Turks and Caicos Islands and the Southeastern Bahamas A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Dominican Republic west of Puerto Plata to the northern border of the Dominican Republic and Haiti * Dominican Republic west of Cabo Engano to Punta Palenque A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Dominican Republic from Isla Saona to Cabo Engano A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Interests elsewhere in Hispaniola and the Bahamas should monitor the progress of Maria. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Maria was located near latitude 18.8 North, longitude 67.3 West. Maria is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected through Thursday night. A turn toward the north-northwest is forecast on Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Maria will continue to move away from the northwestern coast of Puerto Rico this evening. The center will then pass offshore of the northeastern coast of the Dominican Republic tonight and Thursday and then move near the Turks and Caicos Islands and southeastern Bahamas Thursday night and Friday. Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next day or two, and Maria could regain major hurricane status by Thursday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km). The minimum central pressure based on data from the Air Force aircraft is 957 mb (28.26 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are still occurring over portions of Puerto Rico. Tropical storm conditions are spreading across the warning areas in the Dominican Republic, and hurricane conditions should start in the hurricane warning area tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas on Thursday, with hurricane conditions starting Thursday night. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Puerto Rico...3 to 5 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore wind over western portions of Puerto Rico, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. A dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and destructive waves will raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet above normal tide levels in the hurricane warning area in the Dominican Republic, and 1 to 3 ft elsewhere along the northern coasts of the Dominican Republic and Haiti. A dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and destructive waves will raise water levels by as much as 9 to 12 feet above normal tide levels within the hurricane warning area of the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands. RAINFALL: Maria is expected to produce the following rainfall totals through Friday: Puerto Rico...20 to 25 inches, isolated 35 inches U.S. and British Virgin Islands...additional 3 to 5 inches Northern and eastern Dominican Republic, Turks and Caicos and southeast Bahamas...8 to 16 inches, isolated 20 inches Northern Haiti...2 to 4 inches Rainfall on these islands will cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides SURF: Swells generated by Maria are affecting the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands. These swells will begin affecting the northern coast of Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the Southeastern Bahamas during the next day or two. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg |
