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| #903988 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:43 AM 21.Sep.2017) TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Jose Discussion Number 64 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 500 AM AST Thu Sep 21 2017 Jose`s structure continues to consist of bands of shallow to moderate convection that are well removed to from the center, mainly in the northeast and northwest quadrants. Dvorak Final-T numbers from TAFB and SAB have fallen a little bit, but due to the lack of deep convection near the center, it isn`t clear how applicable the Dvorak technique is in this case. The intensity has therefore been held at 50 kt, in deference to earlier ASCAT and aircraft data. Another reconnaissance mission is scheduled for later this morning, and this should provide more information on Jose`s intensity and wind radii. The intensity guidance is still in very good agreement that Jose will continue to gradually weaken. I have no reason to doubt this, since Jose will remain over cold waters and embedded within a fairly dry environment. Little change was made to the previous intensity forecast, except to show Jose becoming post-tropical within 36 hours, based on the latest GFS and ECMWF model runs. A deep-layer trough to the northeast of Jose has continued to pull away, and the tropical storm has come to a near stop. The estimated motion is 90/2 kt, but it may be even slower than that. The global models continue to agree that Jose will remain within weak steering flow through the forecast period. The new NHC forecast remains close to the various consensus aids and keeps Jose nearly stationary through 96 h. KEY MESSAGES: 1. While the center of Jose is forecast to remain offshore of the U.S. east coast, the large cyclone is expected to cause some direct impacts in portions of extreme southeastern New England during the next day or two, and a tropical storm warning remains in effect for Cape Cod, Block Island, Martha`s Vineyard, and Nantucket. 2. Minor coastal flooding is possible along portions of the coast of southern New England during the next few days. Please see products issued by local National Weather Service forecast offices. 3. Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda and much of the U.S. east coast, and will likely cause dangerous surf and rip current conditions for the next several days in these areas. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0900Z 39.8N 67.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 21/1800Z 39.7N 67.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 22/0600Z 39.8N 68.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 22/1800Z 39.8N 68.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 23/0600Z 39.6N 69.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 24/0600Z 39.4N 69.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 25/0600Z 39.5N 68.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 26/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky |
