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| #904020 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:52 AM 21.Sep.2017) TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Jose Discussion Number 65 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 1100 AM AST Thu Sep 21 2017 Satellite and radar data suggest that Jose is gradually spinning down. The convective bands are relatively shallow, except over the western quadrants where the cloud tops are a bit colder. The outer-most bands are very near the offshore islands of southeastern New England, where there have been reports of tropical-storm-force winds, especially in gusts. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters investigated Jose earlier this morning, and a combination of the flight-level winds, SFMR observations, and dropsonde data support holding the initial intensity at 50 kt. The intensity forecast appears straightforward. Cool waters, dry air, and an expected increase in wind shear should cause Jose to steadily weaken and lead to post-tropical transition within the next 24 hours. The post-tropical system is predicted to degenerate into a trough by day 4, as suggested by the GFS and ECMWF models. The NHC intensity forecast is just an update of the previous one, and it lies close to the consensus models. As previously predicted, Jose has become stationary. Since the storm is expected to remain in weak steering currents for the next few days, Jose is forecast to meander off the coast of southeastern New England until it dissipates. This track prediction is not too different from the previous one, and it lies near the middle of the guidance. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Tropical-storm-force winds, especially in gusts, are occuring within the tropical storm warning area. These conditions are expected to continue through tonight. 2. Minor coastal flooding is possible along portions of the coast of southern New England during the next few days. Please see products issued by local National Weather Service forecast offices. 3. Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda and much of the U.S. east coast, and will likely cause dangerous surf and rip current conditions for the next few days in these areas. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/1500Z 39.6N 68.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 22/0000Z 39.5N 68.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 22/1200Z 39.6N 68.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 23/0000Z 39.5N 69.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 23/1200Z 39.4N 69.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 24/1200Z 39.1N 68.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi |
