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| #904058 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:46 PM 21.Sep.2017) TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Jose Discussion Number 66 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 500 PM AST Thu Sep 21 2017 Jose is still producing some convective bands well to the north and west of the center. The outer-most bands are brushing the coast of extreme southeastern New England, where tropical-storm-force winds, especially in gusts, have been occurring for much of the day. An ASCAT pass from earlier today showed maximum winds near 45 kt, and since the cyclone appears to have weakened since that time, the initial wind speed is lowered slightly to that value. Cool waters, dry air, and an increase in wind shear should cause Jose to continue weakening, and model simulated satellite images suggest that Jose should become a post-tropical cyclone in about 24 hours, or sooner. The intensity models are in very good agreement, and the NHC forecast is an update of the previous one. Jose has been meandering off the southern New England coastline during the past several hours. Since the cyclone is expected to remain in weak steering currents, little motion is forecast during the next few days. The NHC track forecast is similar to the previous one and in general agreement with the consensus aids. The initial wind radii have been modified based on ASCAT data from around 1500 UTC. The forecast wind radii follows the guidance provided by NOAA`s Ocean Prediction Center. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Tropical-storm-force winds, especially in gusts, are occuring within the tropical storm warning area. These conditions are expected to continue through tonight. 2. Minor coastal flooding is possible along portions of the coast of southern New England during the next few days. Please see products issued by local National Weather Service forecast offices. 3. Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda and much of the U.S. east coast, and will likely cause dangerous surf and rip current conditions for the next couple of days in these areas. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/2100Z 39.6N 67.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 22/0600Z 39.5N 68.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 22/1800Z 39.5N 68.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 23/0600Z 39.2N 68.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 23/1800Z 39.0N 68.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 24/1800Z 38.9N 67.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi |
