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| #904113 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:52 AM 22.Sep.2017) TCDAT2 Post-Tropical Cyclone Jose Discussion Number 68 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 500 AM AST Fri Sep 22 2017 Since the last advisory, a small burst of deep convection has been observed near the center of Jose. The cyclone is still embedded within a dry environment and located over cold SSTs, so it will be a little surprising if the convection is maintained for an extended period of time this morning. The intensity of the post-tropical cyclone remains 45 kt, based on earlier ASCAT data, and these winds are likely occuring over open water well to the northwest of Jose`s center. Surface observations on Martha`s Vineyard, Nantucket, and Block Island indicate that tropical storm conditions are still occuring in some locations along the coast. The prior ASCAT pass also showed a wide area of tropical-storm-force winds just offshore of Cape Cod, and there is still some opportunity for these winds to reach the coast this morning. Therefore, the tropical storm warnings remain in effect, and the NHC will continue to issue advisories on Jose. No significant change has been made to the track or intensity forecast. All of the dynamical models remain in good agreement that Jose will remain trapped in weak steering flow while gradually spinning down for the next several days. Although the cyclone has been drifting west for the past 12 hours, a slow turn back toward the east should begin sometime later today and continue through at least day 3. The NHC forecast track is close to the TVCX and HCCA consensus aids. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Tropical-storm-force winds, especially in gusts, are occuring within the tropical storm warning area. These conditions are expected to continue this morning. 2. Minor coastal flooding is possible along portions of the coast of southern New England during the next few days. Please see products issued by local National Weather Service forecast offices. 3. Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda and much of the U.S. east coast, and will likely cause dangerous surf and rip current conditions for the next couple of days in these areas. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0900Z 39.7N 68.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 22/1800Z 39.7N 69.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 24H 23/0600Z 39.5N 69.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 23/1800Z 39.2N 68.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 24/0600Z 38.9N 67.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 25/0600Z 38.5N 67.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 26/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky |
