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| #904344 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:04 PM 23.Sep.2017) TCDAT5 Hurricane Maria Discussion Number 32 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017 1100 PM EDT Sat Sep 23 2017 Once again tonight, the cloud pattern has become more impressive with a distinct eye of 30 n mi in diameter surrounded by a ring of very deep convection. Wind data sampled by the reconnaissance plane this evening perhaps do not justify winds as high as 100 kt. However, since the central pressure has dropped to 942 mb, and both objective and subjective Dvorak numbers have increased slightly due to the improvement of the cloud pattern, the initial intensity is kept at 100 kt in this advisory. During the next 24 hours while Maria is moving through a low shear environment and over warm waters, slight strengthening could occur. However, this will not be a significant change, and I have opted to show Maria with the same intensity for about a day or so. From 36 hours and beyond, the hurricane will find cooler waters and gradual weakening should then begin. Satellite and recon fixes indicate that the hurricane is moving toward the north or 350 degrees at 8 kt, steered by the flow between the Atlantic subtropical ridge and a cut-off low/trough digging southward over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. The subtropical high is forecast to amplify, and this pattern should keep Maria moving slowly northward for the next 3 days. As the subtropical ridge slides eastward, Maria will encounter the mid-latitude westerlies and should recurve away from the United States coast. The track guidance unanimously brings the hurricane northward to near latitude 34N where recurvature should occur. The uncertainty is how close to the North Carolina coast Maria`s turn will occur. At this time and with the current guidance, the core of Maria should turn northeast well east of the Outer Banks. However, Maria is a large cyclone and the tropical storm force winds extend outward a great distance. These winds could eventually reach a portion of the North Carolina coast. The NHC forecast is very similar to the previous one and follows very closely the multi-model consensus and the corrected consensus HCCA. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Maria`s forecast track continues to be northward, paralleling the U.S. east coast, and it is likely that some direct impacts will occur along portions of the coast next week. Interests along the coast of the Carolinas and the Mid-Atlantic should monitor the progress of Maria, as tropical storm or hurricane watches may be needed for part of this area on Sunday. 2. Swells from Maria are increasing along the coast of the southeastern United States and are expected to reach the Mid-Atlantic coast on Sunday. These swells will likely cause dangerous surf and rip currents at the beach through much of next week. For more information, please monitor information from your local National Weather Service office at www.weather.gov. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0300Z 27.0N 72.5W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 24/1200Z 28.2N 72.7W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 25/0000Z 29.5N 73.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 25/1200Z 30.5N 73.1W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 26/0000Z 31.5N 73.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 27/0000Z 33.2N 73.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 28/0000Z 34.5N 72.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 29/0000Z 35.5N 69.0W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Avila |
