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| #904370 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:58 AM 24.Sep.2017) TCDAT4 Hurricane Lee Discussion Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142017 500 AM AST Sun Sep 24 2017 Since the earlier special advisory issued to make Lee a hurricane, the eye has become much better defined in IR imagery, indicating that the hurricane has continued to rapidly intensify. The initial intensity has therefore been increased to 75 kt, based on an application of the Dvorak technique to the latest IR imagery. It should be noted that in this case, the intensity is fairly uncertain given the lack of ground truth and the small size of the cyclone. At this point, it is hard to judge how long this period of rapid intensification will continue. On one hand, Lee is expected to remain in a relatively unstable and low-shear environment for the next several days. On the other, despite the clearing of the eye, cloud tops have not cooled significantly overnight, and the slow motion of Lee allows the possibility that the storm could begin to interact with its own cold wake. The NHC forecast brings Lee to near major hurricane strength in 24 h, and then keeps Lee around that intensity through day 4, similar to the FSSE model. By the end of the forecast, higher shear, due in part to the outflow of Hurricane Maria, could cause Lee to weaken, so the NHC forecast is a little lower at that point. Lee is drifting southward for now, but a southeastward motion is still forecast to begin later today. Very little change has been made to the NHC forecast, which is mainly just an update of the previous one. The models have come into better agreement that Lee will be primarily steered for the next several days by a mid-level ridge building to the northwest. By day 5, a trough associated with Maria and the subtropical ridge should cause Lee to begin recurving. Since the model spread has decreased, confidence in that aspect of the forecast has increased this morning. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0900Z 31.8N 50.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 24/1800Z 31.6N 49.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 25/0600Z 31.1N 48.9W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 25/1800Z 30.6N 48.8W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 26/0600Z 30.2N 49.4W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 27/0600Z 30.5N 51.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 28/0600Z 32.0N 52.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 29/0600Z 34.5N 51.4W 80 KT 90 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky |
