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| #904428 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:34 PM 24.Sep.2017) TCDAT4 Hurricane Lee Discussion Number 27 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142017 500 PM AST Sun Sep 24 2017 Lee is displaying a 15 nm wide eye amidst a small central dense overcast. SAB, TAFB, Advanced Dvorak, and AMSU intensity estimates are all similar, indicating an initial maximum wind speed that remains 80 kt. The LGEM and DSHIPS statistical guidance shows continued hurricane intensity for the next several days because of low vertical shear and warm waters. However, the HWRF and COAMPS dynamical model output suggests quite a bit weaker system, perhaps because these models are anticipating that Lee will move over its own cold wake in a couple of days. By day 4 or 5, the environment should become hostile as cooler, drier air gets entrained into Lee and it experiences strong vertical shear from the outflow of Hurricane Maria. The official intensity forecast is in between the weaker dynamical models and the stronger previous advisory. The system is moving toward the southeast at about 3 kt. The hurricane should bend back toward the southwest and then west during the next couple of days as a mid-level ridge gets re-established north of Lee. By day 4 the system should recurve and accelerate toward the north-northeast or northeast, as it gets picked up by the mid-latitude westerlies. The track model consensus has shifted westward through day 3 and then accelerated faster toward the northeast by day 5. The official track forecast follows suit, using the HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach. Lee is a tiny hurricane. The 1236Z ASCAT pass showed that tropical storm-force-winds only extend outward at most 30 nm from the center. The global models indicate only a slightly larger hurricane over time and the official size forecasts are based upon the RVCN multi-model scheme. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/2100Z 31.3N 49.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 25/0600Z 31.0N 49.2W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 25/1800Z 30.7N 49.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 26/0600Z 30.3N 50.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 26/1800Z 30.4N 51.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 27/1800Z 31.0N 53.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 28/1800Z 33.0N 53.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 29/1800Z 37.0N 49.0W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Landsea |
