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| #904434 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:10 PM 24.Sep.2017) TCDAT5 Hurricane Maria Discussion Number 35 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017 500 PM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017 Recent reports from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Maria`s pressure has fallen a few millibars since this morning, but there has been little overall change in intensity. A blend of the flight-level and Stepped Frequency Radiometer Microwave Radiometer data yields an initial wind speed of around 90 kt. Maria will be traversing warm water and remain in a low shear environment during the next day or so, and some fluctuations in intensity are possible through Monday. After that time, Maria is forecast to move over cooler waters left over from Hurricane Jose. This is likely to result in gradual weakening, however Maria is forecast to maintain hurricane status through the entire forecast period. Maria is moving just west of due north or 350/8 kt. The hurricane is currently being steered north-northwestward to northward between a cut-off low over the southeastern U.S. and a subtropical ridge over the southwestern Atlantic. The forward motion of the hurricane should slow down over the next couple of days as a ridge builds to the north of the system over the northeastern United States. After 72 h, Maria should turn east-northeastward and begin to recurve as the deep-layer flow turns southwestward ahead of large mid-latitude trough that is forecast to move over the Great Lakes region by the end of the week. The latest runs of the dynamical models are fairly similar to the previous ones, with the ECMWF along the western side of the guidance and the GFS near the eastern edge. The NHC track is between these solutions, and lies west of the various consensus aids out of respect for the ECMWF and its ensemble mean. Since Maria is a large hurricane, the associated tropical-storm- force winds could reach a portion of the North Carolina in about 48 hours. As a result, a Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for a portion of the coast of North Carolina. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Maria is forecast to continue moving northward, paralleling the U.S. east coast, and it is likely that some direct impacts will occur along portions of the coast beginning Tuesday, and a Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for a portion of the coast of North Carolina. 2. Storm surge flooding especially along the sound side of the North Carolina Outer Banks is possible beginning Tuesday, and a Storm Surge Watch has been issued for a portion of the North Carolina Outer Banks. 3. Swells from Maria are increasing along the coast of the southeastern United States and are expected to reach the Mid- Atlantic coast today. These swells will likely cause dangerous surf and rip currents at beaches in these areas through much of the week. For more information, please monitor information from your local National Weather Service office at www.weather.gov. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/2100Z 29.4N 73.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 25/0600Z 30.3N 73.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 25/1800Z 31.4N 73.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 26/0600Z 32.5N 73.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 26/1800Z 33.6N 73.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 27/1800Z 35.0N 73.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 28/1800Z 35.8N 71.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 29/1800Z 37.5N 64.5W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown |
