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| #904672 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:40 AM 26.Sep.2017) TCDAT4 Hurricane Lee Discussion Number 34 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142017 1100 AM AST Tue Sep 26 2017 Lee is small but impressive hurricane this morning with a well-defined eye on visible satellite images. Satellite intensity estimates are a little higher and support an initial wind speed of at least 90 kt. Further strengthening is possible for the next day or so while Lee continues moving over warm waters with relatively light shear. Most of the guidance shows Lee getting a bit stronger, and the cyclone stands some chance of becoming a major hurricane within the next 24 hours or so. The official forecast is raised from the previous one, and is on the high side of the guidance. Weakening should begin on Thursday as shear increases and water temperatures decrease. The small tropical cyclone should weaken fairly quickly at higher latitudes and become absorbed in a large extratropical low over the northeastern Atlantic Ocean. Lee continues moving westward at 9 kt. The hurricane should gradually turn to the northwest on Wednesday and to the north on Thursday as it moves around a ridge over the east-central Atlantic. Thereafter, Lee is likely to accelerate to the northeast as it enters the faster mid-latitude flow. There are some speed differences in the models but overall not a lot of cross-track spread. The new forecast is faster than the previous one, in the direction of the latest HFIP corrected-consensus model. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/1500Z 29.9N 53.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 27/0000Z 30.0N 55.1W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 27/1200Z 30.6N 56.2W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 28/0000Z 31.7N 56.8W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 28/1200Z 33.3N 56.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 29/1200Z 39.0N 51.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 30/1200Z 46.0N 35.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake |
