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| #904707 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:34 PM 26.Sep.2017) TCDAT4 Hurricane Lee Discussion Number 35 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142017 500 PM AST Tue Sep 26 2017 Satellite images indicate that the cloud-top temperatures in the eyewall of Lee have cooled this afternoon, with about the same warm temperatures in the eye. This indicates Lee remains on a strengthening trend, and the initial wind speed is set to 95 kt, near the CIMSS Advanced Dvorak Technique figure. Lee has about 24 hours to intensify before shear increases and water temperatures begin to cool. Most of the guidance now show Lee becoming a major hurricane, and the official forecast follows suit. A more significant weakening is expected by the end of the week as the hurricane moves over much colder waters and into higher shear. Model guidance is virtually unanimous on this scenario, and only minor changes were made to the previous forecast. The small tropical cyclone should become absorbed in a large extratropical low over the northeastern Atlantic Ocean within 4 or 5 days. Lee is moving westward at 8 kt. The hurricane should gradually turn to the northwest on Wednesday and to the north on Thursday as it moves around a ridge over the east-central Atlantic. Thereafter, Lee is likely to accelerate to the northeast as it enters the faster mid-latitude flow. The most significant change to the previous forecast is that the model guidance has trended westward with the first part of the forecast, closest to the 00 UTC ECMWF solution. Since the 12 UTC ECMWF is very consistent with its previous forecast, the NHC track forecast is adjusted westward near the point of recurvature, then is blended back with the previous forecast closer to the corrected consensus guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/2100Z 29.9N 54.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 27/0600Z 30.0N 55.9W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 27/1800Z 31.0N 56.9W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 28/0600Z 32.4N 57.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 28/1800Z 34.5N 56.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 29/1800Z 41.0N 48.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 30/1800Z 48.5N 30.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 01/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake |
