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| #904742 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:37 PM 26.Sep.2017) TCDAT4 Hurricane Lee Discussion Number 36 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142017 1100 PM AST Tue Sep 26 2017 Lee remains just below major hurricane strength. The eye of the hurricane is very distinct with a fairly symmetric area of deep convection surrounding that feature. Recent microwave data show some evidence that Lee could be developing concentric eyewalls, and frequent lightning has been occurring in the outer periphery of the circulation. A blend of the subjective and objective Dvorak estimates support holding the initial wind speed at 95 kt. Lee still has another 12 to 24 hours to strengthen while it remains over warm waters and in a low wind shear environment, and it could become a major hurricane during that time. Thereafter, a significant increase in wind shear and progressively cooler waters along the forecast track should cause a steady weakening trend and lead to post-tropical transition in a little more than 3 days. The global models agree that Lee should be absorbed by an extratropical low in about 4 days. The hurricane is moving westward at 7 kt steered by a mid-level ridge to its north. Lee is expected to reach the western periphery of the ridge in 24 to 36 hours, which should cause the system to gradually turn to the north during that time. After that, Lee is expected to accelerate to the northeast when it gets embedded in the much faster mid-latitude flow. The new NHC track is in good agreement with the consensus models and it is not too different from the previous one. Lee remains a very compact hurricane with tropical-storm-force winds extending only 60 n mi from the center. The cyclone is expected to become larger, however, as it gains latitude during the next few days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0300Z 30.0N 55.5W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 27/1200Z 30.5N 56.4W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 28/0000Z 31.6N 57.1W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 28/1200Z 33.4N 57.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 29/0000Z 36.0N 55.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 30/0000Z 43.7N 43.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi |
