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| #904771 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:37 AM 27.Sep.2017) TCDAT4 Hurricane Lee Discussion Number 37 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142017 500 AM AST Wed Sep 27 2017 Conventional satellite imagery indicates that Lee has been undergoing some cloud structural changes during the past several hours. The eye has nearly doubled in size to 30 miles in diameter, the central pressure indicated in the CIMSS Objective Dvorak technique has increased a few millibars, and an earlier 2147 UTC WindSAT overpass revealed a developing outer ring surrounding the partially opened inner core. These aforementioned cloud pattern alterations arguably point to an undergoing eyewall replacement cycle, and the possibility of intensification in the short term. The initial intensity of 95 kt remains above the subjective T-numbers, and is close to the CIMSS ADT estimated intensity. The official intensity forecast reflects the possibility of Lee becoming a major hurricane later today before a weakening trend commences by early Wednesday. The global models and the FSU Cyclone Phase Evolution product agree that Lee will maintain tropical characteristics through day 3. Afterward, the guidance shows the cyclone quickly absorbed by an existing larger baroclinic system. The initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or 285/8 kt. Lee should turn gradually northwestward later today, and generally northward on Thursday as the cyclone is steered by the southwestern peripheral flow of a subtropical ridge over the east-central Atlantic. Through the remaining portion of the forecast, Lee is forecast to accelerate northeastward within the strong mid-latitude southwesterly flow and ultimately dissipate in 72 hours. The model guidance suite continues to trend toward the west through the 36-hour period, and the official forecast follows suit. Beyond that time frame, the forecast is a little faster than the previous advisory and is nudged toward the HFIP Corrected Consensus technique model. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0900Z 30.2N 56.3W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 27/1800Z 30.8N 57.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 28/0600Z 32.1N 57.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 28/1800Z 34.5N 56.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 29/0600Z 37.8N 53.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 30/0600Z 46.3N 39.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 01/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts |
