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| #904847 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:37 PM 27.Sep.2017) TCDAT4 Hurricane Lee Discussion Number 39 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142017 500 PM AST Wed Sep 27 2017 Lee looks like a classic major hurricane on satellite today, with a fairly clear eye and an impressive outflow pattern aloft. The most noticeable change during the day is that the eye has shrunk a little bit, perhaps suggesting Lee may undergo another eyewall cycle. Otherwise, the eye temperatures and eyewall convection are similar to 6 hours ago, resulting in similar Dvorak estimates. Thus, the wind speed will remain 100 kt for this advisory. Lee should be near its peak intensity tonight and begin to weaken tomorrow as vertical wind shear increases and SSTs cool. The system should be losing tropical characteristics by late week, and will likely transition into a post-tropical cyclone on Saturday due to it moving over very cold water. The official intensity forecast is basically an update of the previous one, near the model consensus, and shaded toward the global models, due to the interaction with the mid-latitudes. Lee has turned even farther to the right, and is now moving north-northwestward at 7 kt. The hurricane should turn northward overnight and northeastward by late Thursday as it moves around the western periphery of a subtropical ridge. Lee should accelerate rapidly northeastward on Friday due to it encountering fast mid-latitude flow. Model guidance is tightly clustered, so the official forecast is close to the previous one, on the ECMWF side of the model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/2100Z 31.2N 57.1W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 28/0600Z 32.2N 57.4W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 28/1800Z 34.3N 56.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 29/0600Z 37.3N 53.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 29/1800Z 41.0N 48.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 30/1800Z 48.5N 30.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 01/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake |
