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| #904915 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:40 AM 28.Sep.2017) TCDAT4 Hurricane Lee Discussion Number 41 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142017 500 AM AST Thu Sep 28 2017 Although Lee remains a powerful hurricane, the cloud pattern appears to be gradually losing some organization. The eye has become ragged at times, and the convective pattern is now more asymmetric with convection becoming limited over the northwestern quadrant. The initial wind speed is held at 95 kt, based on an average of the Dvorak CI-numbers from TAFB/SAB and CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin, but this could be a little generous. Lee is headed toward an environment of strong wind shear and cooler waters. These more hostile conditions should cause the system to steadily weaken during the next couple of days, and Lee will likely fall below hurricane strength in 36 to 48 hours. The system is expected to lose its tropical characteristics in a little more than 2 days when it will be over SSTs below 20 deg C and in an environment of about 30 kt of westerly shear. Dissipation is now predicted to occur by day 3, in agreement with the latest runs of the GFS and ECMWF models. The NHC intensity forecast is an update of the previous one, and it remains in good agreement with the ICON and HCCA consensus aids. Lee has turned to the north at 8 kt on the western side of a mid-level ridge. The hurricane is forecast to begin accelerating to the northeast later today when it becomes embedded in fast mid-latitude flow, and it should continue moving in that direction until it dissipates. The models are tightly clustered, and only minor changes were made to the previous NHC track forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0900Z 32.5N 57.2W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 28/1800Z 34.5N 56.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 29/0600Z 37.4N 53.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 29/1800Z 41.0N 47.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 30/0600Z 44.7N 39.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 01/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi |
