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| #904950 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:49 AM 28.Sep.2017) TCDAT4 Hurricane Lee Discussion Number 42 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142017 1100 AM AST Thu Sep 28 2017 Northerly shear continues to adversely affect the organization of Lee. The central dense overcast has become fairly asymmetric, with most of the cold cloud tops limited to the southern semicircle, and the eye is also losing definition. All of the various objective and subjective satellite-based intensity estimates have decreased, and the initial intensity has been lowered to 85 kt, based on a blend of these data. The global models continue to indicate that the northerly shear will get stronger over the next two days. This shear, combined with progressively cooler SSTs along the forecast track of Lee, should result in continued weakening. The new intensity forecast shows a slightly faster weakening rate than before, in line with the latest intensity guidance. The dynamical models all forecast Lee to dissipate near a frontal zone around 48 h. The NHC forecast conservatively shows Lee as a tropical cyclone at that point, but it would not be surprising if the cyclone dissipated or became a remnant low between 36 and 48 h. Lee is beginning to accelerate toward the north, and the initial motion estimate is 010/10 kt. The hurricane is forecast to turn toward the northeast while accelerating in the fast mid-latitude flow until it eventually opens up into a trough in a couple of days. Very little change was made to the NHC forecast, which remains close to HCCA and near the center of the tightly clustered global models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/1500Z 33.7N 57.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 29/0000Z 35.7N 55.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 29/1200Z 39.0N 51.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 30/0000Z 42.9N 44.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 30/1200Z 47.0N 34.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky |
