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| #904980 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:37 PM 28.Sep.2017) TCDAT4 Hurricane Lee Discussion Number 43 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142017 500 PM AST Thu Sep 28 2017 The satellite presentation of Lee has continued to degrade over the past six hours. The IR eye has opened on the northern side, and the low-level center of circulation appears to be displaced to the north-northwest of the mid-level center. Outflow in the northwest quadrant has also become severely restricted. A blend of Dvorak current intensity estimates from TAFB, SAB, and the U-W CIMSS at 1800 UTC was used as the basis for the initial intensity of 80 kt, but it is possible this is generous, given the continued degradation of the satellite presentation since that time. No significant changes were made to the track or intensity forecast. Lee is now estimated to be moving toward the north-northeast, or 25 degrees, around 15 kt. Lee should continue to accelerate toward the north-northeast to northeast ahead of a deep-layer mid-latitude trough for the next couple of days. The dynamical models are still tightly clustered, and the NHC track forecast remains close to the track consensus. Along this track, increasing shear and cooler SSTs will cause Lee to continue to weaken. Between 36 and 48 hours, a combination of weakening and faster forward motion should cause Lee to open up into a trough and dissipate. The NHC intensity forecast follows the relatively fast weakening trend of DSHP for the first 12 hours, and is close to the intensity consensus after that. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/2100Z 35.1N 55.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 29/0600Z 37.4N 53.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 29/1800Z 41.2N 47.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 30/0600Z 45.6N 39.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky |
