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| #905075 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:52 AM 29.Sep.2017) TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Maria Discussion Number 54 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017 1100 AM AST Fri Sep 29 2017 Although Maria is trying to race east-northeastward ahead of a cold front, satellite images indicate that cold air is already beginning to entrain into the circulation of the tropical cyclone. Most of deep convection is limited to a curved band to the east of the center and an average of Dvorak estimates indicate that the maximum winds are still 50 kt. The winds could increase a little due to baroclinic forcing later today while Maria acquires extratropical characteristics. Maria should become post-tropical in about 36 hours, and then dissipate or be absorbed by a larger cyclone around day 3. Maria is already embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies and is racing toward the east-northeast at 27 kt. This steering pattern is forecast to persist, and Maria is anticipated to continue on this track with an increase in forward speed until dissipation. The NHC forecast uses guidance provided by the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center and is also in very good agreement with track models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/1500Z 37.5N 60.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 30/0000Z 38.6N 55.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 30/1200Z 40.5N 48.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 01/0000Z 43.5N 40.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 01/1200Z 46.5N 32.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 02/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila |
