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| #905786 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:40 AM 05.Oct.2017) TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Nate Intermediate Advisory Number 4A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162017 800 AM EDT Thu Oct 05 2017 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM NATE NEAR THE COAST OF NICARAGUA... ...FLOODING RAINS EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA... SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.9N 83.4W ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM S OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Sandy Bay Sirpi Nicaragua to Punta Castilla Honduras A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Punta Herrero to Rio Lagartos Mexico A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Interests elsewhere in Honduras, the Bay Islands, western Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the progress of Nate. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nate was located near latitude 13.9 North, longitude 83.4 West. Nate is moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue this morning. A north-northwestward motion at a faster forward speed is forecast to begin later today and continue through Friday night. On the forecast track, the center of Nate should move across northeastern Nicaragua and eastern Honduras today and then over the northwestern Caribbean Sea tonight and Friday. The center is expected to approach the coast of the Yucatan peninsula late Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected today as the center of Nate moves across northeastern Nicaragua and eastern Honduras. Strengthening is likely over the northwestern Caribbean Sea tonight and Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) mainly over water to the east of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). Puerto Cabezas recently reported a pressure of 1001 mb (29.56 inches) HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Nate is expected to produce the following rain accumulations through Friday night: Nicaragua...15 to 20 inches, isolated 30 inches Costa Rica and Panama...5 to 10 inches, isolated 20 inches Honduras and Belize...2 to 5 inches, isolated 8 inches Eastern portions of the Yucatan peninsula...4 to 8 inches, isolated 12 inches Heavy rainfall will occur over a wide area, including locations well away from the center along the Pacific coast of Central America. This rainfall could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the warning area in Nicaragua and Honduras today and tonight. Tropical storm and hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area in Mexico beginning late Friday. SURF: Swells generated by Nate are affecting portions of the coast of Nicaragua, and will begin to affect other land areas around the northwestern Caribbean later this week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Beven |
