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| #905815 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:40 PM 05.Oct.2017) TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Nate Intermediate Advisory Number 5A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162017 200 PM EDT Thu Oct 05 2017 ...CENTER OF NATE CONTINUES MOVING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA... ...FLOODING RAINS EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA... SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.5N 84.0W ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM NW OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM SSW OF PUERTO LEMPIRA HONDURAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Sandy Bay Sirpi Nicaragua to Punta Castilla Honduras * Punta Herrero to Rio Lagartos Mexico A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Punta Herrero to Rio Lagartos Mexico A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere in Honduras, the Bay Islands, western Cuba, the Yucatan Peninsula, and the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of Nate. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nate was located inland over northeastern Nicaragua near latitude 14.5 North, longitude 84.0 West. Nate is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn toward the north-northwest at a faster forward speed is expected this afternoon or tonight, with that motion continuing through Friday night. On the forecast track, the center of Nate should move across northeastern Nicaragua and eastern Honduras this afternoon and then over the northwestern Caribbean Sea tonight and Friday. The center is expected to approach the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula late Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected today while the center is over land. Strengthening is likely once the center moves over the northwestern Caribbean Sea tonight and Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 50 miles (80 km) mainly over water to the east of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Nate is expected to produce the following rain accumulations through Friday night: Nicaragua...15 to 20 inches, isolated 30 inches Costa Rica and Panama...5 to 10 inches, isolated 20 inches Honduras and Eastern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula...4 to 8 inches, isolated 12 inches Belize...2 to 5 inches, isolated 8 inches Heavy rainfall will occur over a wide area, including locations well away from the center along the Pacific coast of Central America. Rainfall across all of these areas may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the warning area in Nicaragua and Honduras today and tonight. Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area in Mexico Friday night, with tropical storm conditions expected by late Friday. SURF: Swells generated by Nate are affecting portions of the coast of Nicaragua, and will begin to affect other land areas around the northwestern Caribbean during the next day or two. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Beven |
