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| #905848 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:34 PM 05.Oct.2017) TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Nate Intermediate Advisory Number 6A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162017 800 PM EDT Thu Oct 05 2017 ...NATE`S CENTER STILL OVER EASTERN HONDURAS... ...EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.3N 84.5W ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM W OF PUERTO LEMPIRA HONDURAS ABOUT 390 MI...630 KM SSE OF COZUMEL MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Sandy Bay Sirpi Nicaragua to Punta Castilla Honduras * Punta Herrero to Rio Lagartos Mexico A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Punta Herrero to Rio Lagartos Mexico A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere in Honduras, the Bay Islands, western Cuba, the Yucatan Peninsula, and the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of Nate. A Hurricane Watch and a Storm Surge Watch will likely be required for portions of the northern Gulf Coast tonight or Friday morning. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nate was located inland over eastern Honduras near latitude 15.3 North, longitude 84.5 West. Nate is moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days with a significant increase in forward speed. On the forecast track, the center of Nate will continue to move over eastern Honduras this evening and over the northwestern Caribbean Sea tonight and Friday. The center is then expected to move near or over the northeastern part of the Yucatan Peninsula and the adjacent islands late Friday or Friday night, and move into the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is likely once the center moves over the northwestern Caribbean Sea tonight and Friday, and Nate could be near hurricane strength as the center approaches the Yucatan Peninsula. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 50 miles (85 km) mainly to the northeast of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Nate is expected to produce the following rain accumulations into Saturday: Southern Honduras and western Nicaragua: 6 to 10 inches, max 20 inches Eastern El Salvador and northern Costa Rica: 3 to 6 inches, max 10 inches Northern Honduras/Nicaragua, eastern Yucatan/Belize and western Cuba: 2 to 4 inches, max 8 inches Central Honduras: 2 to 4 inches Cayman Islands and Jamaica: 1 to 2 inches Heavy rainfall will occur over a wide area, including locations well away from the center along the Pacific coast of Central America. Rainfall across all of these areas may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the warning area in Nicaragua and Honduras tonight. Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area in Mexico Friday night, with tropical storm conditions expected by late Friday. STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds on the Yucatan Peninsula and the adjacent islands. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Nate are affecting portions of the coast of Nicaragua, and will begin to affect other land areas around the northwestern Caribbean during the next day or two. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Berg |
