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| #905902 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:58 AM 06.Oct.2017) TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Nate Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162017 400 AM CDT Fri Oct 06 2017 An Air Force plane fixed the center of Nate as it was moving back over the waters of the Gulf of Honduras a few hours ago. The minimum central pressure was estimated at 999 mb, and a combination of flight-level and the SFMR winds yield an intensity of 40 kt. The surface circulation is broad, and the strongest winds are within a cyclonically curved band in the eastern semicircle. Radar from Honduras also helped to track the center when the cyclone was over Honduras. Nate is moving toward the very warm waters of the northwestern Caribbean Sea and within an environment of light shear. On this basis, the NHC forecast calls for some strengthening through the next 48 hours, and Nate is expected to be a Category one hurricane by the time it is close to the U.S. coast. The interaction with the Yucatan peninsula, however, could halt the strengthening temporarily in the 12 to 24 hour period. Once Nate moves inland over the U.S., weakening is anticipated and the cyclone most likely will dissipate by the end of the forecast period. Nate is moving toward the north-northwest or 340 degrees at 12 kt. The cyclone is sandwiched between a large cyclonic gyre over Central America and a developing subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic. This flow pattern should steer Nate on the same general north-northwest track with a marked increase in forward speed for the next 2 days. After that time, Nate should be on the northern edge of the subtropical high and become steered toward the northeast by the mid-latitude westerly flow. The confidence in the track forecast is high since most of the reliable guidance have come to a very good agreement, and models are tightly clustered at least for the next 2 to 3 days. The NHC forecast is in the middle of the envelope. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Heavy rainfall is the main threat from Nate in portions of Central America, with life-threatening flash flooding and mud slides possible in portions of Nicaragua, Honduras, Costa Rica, Panama, and Belize through tonight. 2. There is a possibility that Nate could be near hurricane intensity when it approaches the Yucatan Peninsula later today bringing direct impacts from wind, storm surge, and heavy rainfall. A tropical storm warning and a hurricane watch are in effect for a portion of this area, and life-threatening flash flooding is also possible. 3. Nate is forecast to reach the northern Gulf Coast late Saturday or Sunday morning as a hurricane, and the threat of direct impacts from wind, storm surge, and heavy rainfall is increasing from Louisiana through the western Florida Panhandle. Hurricane and tropical storm watches, as well as a storm surge watch, are in effect for a portion of the northern Gulf Coast, and residents in these areas should monitor the progress of Nate, heeding any advice given by local officials. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0900Z 16.9N 85.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 06/1800Z 19.2N 85.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 07/0600Z 22.7N 87.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 07/1800Z 26.4N 89.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 08/0600Z 29.3N 89.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 09/0600Z 36.0N 84.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 96H 10/0600Z 40.5N 74.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 11/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila |
