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| #906057 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:07 AM 07.Oct.2017) TCDAT1 Hurricane Nate Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162017 400 AM CDT Sat Oct 07 2017 An Air Force reconnaissance plane investigated Nate a couple of hours ago and measured peak flight-level winds of 89 kt at 850 mb to the east of the center. No hurricane force winds were reported west of the center. The SFMR winds from that mission yielded an initial intensity of 70 kt. Since the plane left, the satellite presentation has changed little, so the winds remains with the same value in this advisory. Another reconnaissance plane is currently approaching Nate. The outflow is well established suggesting that the shear is low, while the atmospheric conditions favor some additional strengthening. On this basis, the NHC forecast calls for some slight increase in the winds, however, the SHIPS/LGEM models forecast Nate to be a little bit stronger just before landfall. After landfall, weakening is anticipated and Nate is forecast to dissipate in 96 hours or sooner. Nate is moving rapidly toward the north-northwest at about 19 kt. The hurricane is being steered by the flow between a large cyclonic gyre over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico and a developing mid-level ridge over the western Atlantic. This pattern should continue to force Nate on a general north-northwest fast track for the next 24 hours. After that time, the hurricane will recurve northeastward with additional increase in forward speed as it encounters the mid-latitude westerlies. The NHC track forecast has not changed much from the previous one and is and is very close the HFIP corrected consensus HCCA. This model has been very skillful this season. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Life-threatening storm surge flooding is likely along portions of the northern Gulf Coast, and a storm surge warning is in effect from Morgan City, Louisiana, to the Okaloosa/Walton county line in Florida. Residents in these areas should heed any evacuation instructions given by local officials. 2. A hurricane warning is in effect for portions of the northern Gulf Coast from Louisiana to Alabama, and preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion in these areas. 3. Nate will bring heavy rainfall of 3 to 6 inches with isolated totals of 10 inches east of the Mississippi River from the central Gulf Coast into the Deep South, eastern Tennessee Valley, and southern Appalachians through Monday, resulting in the potential for flash flooding in these areas. 4. Moisture from Nate interacting with a frontal zone will also bring 2 to 4 inches with isolated totals of 6 inches across the Ohio Valley into the central Appalachians Sunday into Monday, which will also increase the risk for flash flooding across these locations. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0900Z 24.5N 87.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 07/1800Z 27.3N 88.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 08/0600Z 30.4N 88.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 08/1800Z 33.8N 86.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 48H 09/0600Z 37.0N 83.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 72H 10/0600Z 43.0N 70.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 11/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila |
