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| #906147 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:52 PM 07.Oct.2017) TCPAT1 BULLETIN Hurricane Nate Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162017 400 PM CDT Sat Oct 07 2017 ...CENTER OF NATE APPROACHING THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SPREADING ONSHORE IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.4N 89.1W ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM S OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM S OF BILOXI MISSISSIPPI MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Storm Surge Warning has been discontinued west of Grand Isle. The Hurricane Watch is discontinued from west of Grand Isle to Morgan City. The Storm Surge Watch has been discontinued east of the Okaloosa/Walton County Line to Indian Pass. The Tropical Storm Watch has been discontinued from west of Morgan City to Intracoastal City. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Grand Isle Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border * Metropolitan New Orleans and Lake Pontchartrain A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Grand Isle Louisiana to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida * Northern and western shores of Lake Pontchartrain A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Lake Maurepas * West of Grand Isle to Morgan City Louisiana * East of the Alabama/Florida border to Indian Pass Florida A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Lake Maurepas * East of the Alabama/Florida border to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Nate was located near latitude 28.4 North, longitude 89.1 West. Nate is moving toward the north-northwest near 23 mph (37 km/h). A turn toward the north and a slight decrease in forward speed are expected during the next several hours, followed by a turn toward the north-northeast later tonight. A motion toward the northeast is expected on Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Nate will pass near or over the mouth of the Mississippi River during the next few hours, then make landfall along the coasts of southeastern Louisiana or Mississippi tonight. After landfall, the center of Nate is expected to pass over portions of Mississippi, Alabama, and Tennessee late tonight through Sunday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is possible before landfall, and Nate could still become a category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale this evening. Rapid weakening is expected after landfall. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km) mainly to the east of the center. The NOAA automated station at Southwest Pass, Louisiana, recent reported sustained winds of 48 mph (78 km/h) and a wind gust of 60 mph (96 km/h) at an elevation of 125 feet. The estimated minimum central pressure is 981 mb (28.97 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Along the northern Gulf Coast, hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area in the next few hours, with tropical storm conditions currently spreading onshore. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area tonight and Sunday morning. Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area tonight. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Mouth of the Mississippi River to the Mississippi/Alabama border...7 to 11 ft Mississippi/Alabama border to the Alabama/Florida border, including Mobile Bay...6 to 9 ft Alabama/Florida border to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line...4 to 6 ft Grand Isle, Louisiana to the mouth of the Mississippi River...2 to 4 ft Okaloosa/Walton County Line to Indian Pass, Florida...2 to 3 ft Indian Pass to Crystal River, Florida...1 to 3 ft Morgan City, Louisiana to Grand Isle...1 to 2 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: Nate is expected to produce the following rain accumulations through Monday: Western Cuba: 2 to 4 inches, max 6 inches. East of the Mississippi River from the central Gulf Coast into the Deep South, eastern Tennessee Valley, and southern Appalachians: 3 to 6 inches, max 10 inches. Across the Ohio Valley into the central Appalachians: 2 to 5 inches, max 7 inches. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible across parts of Alabama, the western Florida Panhandle, western Georgia, and southern Mississippi through Sunday afternoon. SURF: Swells generated by Nate will affect land areas around the Gulf of Mexico during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven |
