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| #906173 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:55 PM 07.Oct.2017) TCPAT1 BULLETIN Hurricane Nate Intermediate Advisory Number 14A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162017 700 PM CDT Sat Oct 07 2017 ...NATE MAKES LANDFALL NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER... SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.0N 89.2W ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM SW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM S OF BILOXI MISSISSIPPI MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Hurricane Warning for Metropolitan New Orleans and Lake Pontchartrain has been changed to a Tropical Storm Warning. The Hurricane Watch for Lake Maurepas has been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Grand Isle Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Grand Isle Louisiana to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida * Northern and western shores of Lake Pontchartrain A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Metropolitan New Orleans and Lake Pontchartrain * Lake Maurepas * West of Grand Isle to Morgan City Louisiana * East of the Alabama/Florida border to Indian Pass Florida A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * East of the Alabama/Florida border to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be complete. A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), NOAA Doppler radar data indicate that the center of Hurricane Nate is now making landfall at the mouth of the Mississippi River, near latitude 29.0 North, longitude 89.2 West. Nate is now moving toward the north and a little slower, near 20 mph (31 km/h). A turn toward the north-northeast is expected later tonight, followed by a motion toward the northeast on Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Nate will make a second landfall along the coast of Mississippi tonight. After landfall, the center of Nate is expected to pass over portions of Mississippi, Alabama, and Tennessee late tonight through Sunday night. Aircraft reconnaissance data and Doppler radar velocity data indicate that maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening now appears unlikely before Nate`s center reaches the Mississippi coast during the next few hours. Rapid weakening is expected after landfall, with Nate becoming a tropical depression by Sunday night. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km) mainly to the east of the center. A sustained wind of 54 mph (87 km/h) and a gust to 58 mph (94 km/h) were recently reported by NOAA buoy 42040 to the east of the mouth of the Mississippi River. The minimum central pressure based on aircraft data is 982 mb (29.00 inches). A water level of 2.9 ft above Mean Higher High Water (MHHW) was recently reported by a National Ocean Service gauge at Pilots Station East, Southwest Pass, Louisiana. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area in the next few hours, with tropical storm conditions already spreading onshore. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area tonight and Sunday morning. Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area tonight. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Mouth of the Mississippi River to the Mississippi/Alabama border...7 to 11 ft Mississippi/Alabama border to the Alabama/Florida border, including Mobile Bay...6 to 9 ft Alabama/Florida border to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line...4 to 6 ft Grand Isle, Louisiana to the mouth of the Mississippi River...2 to 4 ft Okaloosa/Walton County Line to Indian Pass, Florida...2 to 3 ft Indian Pass to Crystal River, Florida...1 to 3 ft Morgan City, Louisiana to Grand Isle...1 to 2 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: Nate is expected to produce the following rain accumulations through Monday: Western Cuba: 2 to 4 inches, max 6 inches. East of the Mississippi River from the central Gulf Coast into the Deep South, eastern Tennessee Valley, and southern Appalachians: 3 to 6 inches, max 10 inches. Across the Ohio Valley into the central Appalachians: 2 to 5 inches, max 7 inches. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible across parts of Alabama, the western Florida Panhandle, western Georgia, and southern Mississippi through Sunday afternoon. SURF: Swells generated by Nate will affect land areas around the Gulf of Mexico during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Berg |
