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| #906207 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:55 PM 07.Oct.2017) TCPAT1 BULLETIN Hurricane Nate Advisory Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162017 1000 PM CDT Sat Oct 07 2017 ...NATE`S NORTHERN EYEWALL MOVING ONSHORE THE MISSISSIPPI COAST... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.9N 89.1W ABOUT 35 MI...60 KM SSW OF BILOXI MISSISSIPPI ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM E OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Storm Surge Warning has been discontinued from Grand Isle Louisiana to the Mouth of the Mississippi River and for Lake Pontchartrain. The Hurricane Warning from Grand Isle Louisiana to the mouth of the Pearl River has been changed to a Tropical Storm Warning. The Hurricane Watch from the Alabama/Florida border to the Okaloosa/ Walton County Line has been discontinued. The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued west of Grand Isle. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Mouth of the Pearl River to the Alabama/Florida border A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Mouth of the Mississippi River to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Metropolitan New Orleans and Lake Pontchartrain * Lake Maurepas * Grand Isle Louisiana to the Mouth of the Pearl River * East of the Alabama/Florida border to Indian Pass Florida A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be complete. A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Nate was located by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft and NOAA Doppler radar just offshore of the Mississippi coast near latitude 29.9 North, longitude 89.1 West. Nate is moving toward the north near 20 mph (31 km/h). A turn toward the north-northeast and northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, Nate`s center will make landfall on the Mississippi coast within the next hour or two. After landfall, the center of Nate is expected to move across the Deep South, Tennessee Valley, and central Appalachian Mountains through Monday. Data from the reconnaissance aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Nate is expected to weaken quickly after landfall, and it is likely to become a tropical storm Sunday morning. It should degenerate into a remnant low late Monday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km). The minimum central pressure based on aircraft data is 984 mb (29.06 inches). A water level of 4.4 ft Mean Higher High Water (MHHW) was recently reported by a National Ocean Service gauge at Shell Beach, Louisiana. The gauge at Bay Waveland Yacht Club, Mississippi, recently reported a water level of 3.3 ft MHHW. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area overnight. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area through Sunday morning. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Mouth of the Pearl River to the Mississippi/Alabama border...7 to 11 ft Mississippi/Alabama border to the Alabama/Florida border, including Mobile Bay...6 to 9 ft Mouth of the Mississippi River to the mouth of the Pearl River...5 to 8 ft Alabama/Florida border to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line...4 to 6 ft Morgan City, Louisiana to the mouth of the Mississippi River...1 to 3 ft Okaloosa/Walton County Line to Indian Pass, Florida...2 to 3 ft Indian Pass to Crystal River, Florida...1 to 3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: Nate is expected to produce the following rain accumulations through Monday: Western Cuba: additional 1 to 2 inches. East of the Mississippi River from the central Gulf Coast into the Deep South, eastern Tennessee Valley, and southern Appalachians: 3 to 6 inches, max 10 inches. Across the Ohio Valley into the central Appalachians: 2 to 5 inches, max 7 inches. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible across parts of Alabama, the western Florida Panhandle, western Georgia, and southern Mississippi through Sunday afternoon. SURF: Swells generated by Nate will affect land areas around the Gulf of Mexico during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Berg |
