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| #906254 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:50 AM 08.Oct.2017) TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Nate Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162017 400 AM CDT Sun Oct 08 2017 The eye of Hurricane Nate moved a few hours ago near or over the Keesler Air Force base, which is the home of the AF Hurricane Hunters. The winds became light and the pressure dropped to 986 mb when the eye passed nearby that location a little after 0500 UTC. Since that time, Nate continued to move farther inland and surface observations as well as Doppler radar data indicate that winds have decreased. The initial intensity has been adjusted downward to 60 kt. Since the circulation is already inland, rapid weakening is anticipated, and Nate is forecast to become a remnant low in about 36 hours as suggested by SHIPS decay model. Radar fixes indicate that Nate is moving toward the north-northeast at 20 kt. Nate is already embedded within the fast mid-latitude westerlies, and this flow pattern should keep the cyclone on a north-northeast to northeast track with increasing forward speed for the next 2 days. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Nate is producing life-threatening storm surge flooding in areas of onshore flow and a storm surge warning remains in effect from Pointe a la Hache to the Okaloosa/Walton county line in Florida. Maximum flooding of 5 to 8 feet above ground level is expected along the Mississippi coast within the next several hours. 2. Nate`s fast forward speed over land will bring tropical storm conditions well inland across portions of the southeastern U.S. 3. Nate will bring heavy rainfall of 3 to 6 inches with isolated totals of 10 inches east of the Mississippi River from the central Gulf Coast into the Deep South, eastern Tennessee Valley, and southern Appalachians through Monday, resulting in the potential for flash flooding in these areas. 4. Moisture from Nate interacting with a frontal zone will also bring 2 to 5 inches of rain with isolated totals of 7 inches across the Ohio Valley and central Appalachians Sunday and Monday, which will increase the risk for flash flooding across these locations. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0900Z 31.5N 88.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 08/1800Z 34.1N 86.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 24H 09/0600Z 38.5N 82.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 36H 09/1800Z 42.5N 75.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 10/0600Z 44.0N 71.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 11/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila |
