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| #906967 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:55 AM 14.Oct.2017) TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Ophelia Advisory Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172017 500 AM AST Sat Oct 14 2017 ...CENTER OF CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE OPHELIA EXPECTED TO PASS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AZORES THIS EVENING... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...33.9N 28.6W ABOUT 295 MI...480 KM SSW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB...28.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal tropical cyclone watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the Azores should refer to products issued by the Azores Weather Forecast and Watch Center. Interests in Ireland should monitor products issued by Met Eireann, and interests in the United Kingdom should monitor products issued by the UK Met Office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ophelia was located near latitude 33.9 North, longitude 28.6 West. Ophelia is moving toward the east-northeast near 24 mph (39 km/h), and a continued east-northeast motion with an increase in forward speed is forecast through this evening. A turn toward the northeast is expected on Sunday. On the forecast track, the core of Ophelia will pass to the south and southeast of the southeastern Azores by tonight or early Sunday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Ophelia is a category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Little change in strength is expected today, followed by slow weakening on Monday and Tuesday. However Ophelia is still expected to remain a powerful cyclone for the next couple of days as it approaches Ireland. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 971 mb (28.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical-storm-force winds are possible throughout the Azores beginning this afternoon or tonight, primarily due to an approaching cold front. RAINFALL: Ophelia is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches over the southeastern Azores through Saturday night. During the same time, a cold front and moisture associated with Ophelia is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches over the other islands of the Azores. This rainfall could produce flooding, especially over the southeastern Azores. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Stewart |
