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| #907106 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:46 AM 15.Oct.2017) TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Ophelia Advisory Number 26 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172017 1100 AM AST Sun Oct 15 2017 ...OPHELIA EXPECTED TO BECOME A STRONG POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BY TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...41.6N 16.0W ABOUT 635 MI...1020 KM ENE OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 38 MPH...61 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal tropical cyclone watches or warnings in effect. Interests in Ireland should monitor products issued by Met Eireann, and interests in the United Kingdom should monitor products issued by the UK Met Office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ophelia was located near latitude 41.6 North, longitude 16.0 West. Ophelia is moving toward the north-northeast near 38 mph (61 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue during the next 24 to 48 hours. On the forecast track, the center of the post-tropical cyclone will approach Ireland tomorrow morning. However, strong winds and rains should begin earlier. Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast, but Ophelia should maintain hurricane force winds until it reaches Ireland. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 973 mb (28.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Gale-force winds are expected to begin across southern Ireland by early Monday morning and gradually spread northward across the country during the day. Hurricane-force winds are expected to reach the southern portions of Ireland by Monday afternoon and spread inland across the country into Monday night. Preparations to protect lives and property should be rushed to completion by this afternoon. Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be even greater. RAINFALL: Ophelia is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 2 to 3 inches (50 mm to 75 mm) with isolated totals near 4 inches (100 mm) through Tuesday across western Ireland and Scotland. Across eastern Ireland, rainfall amounts will average around 1 inch (25 mm) or less. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center of the post-tropical cyclone makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Avila |
