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| #90735 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:34 PM 10.Jun.2006) TCDAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012006 1100 PM EDT SAT JUN 10 2006 DESPITE THE POOR SATELLITE PRESENTATION AND THE FACT THAT THE AIR FORCE PLANE CREW COULD NOT MAKE A CENTER FIX...THERE WAS A BAND OF 40 TO 45-KNOT WINDS AT FLIGHT LEVEL IN THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION. THESE WINDS WERE ASSOCIATED WITH A FEW TRANSIENT CONVECTIVE BANDS. SINCE THEN...THERE HAS NOT BEEN AN IMPROVEMENT IN ORGANIZATION AND THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS DECREASED. THEREFORE...THE SYSTEM IS KEPT AS A 30-KNOT DEPRESSION. THERE IS STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR ALONG THE FORECAST PATH OF THE CYCLONE. BECAUSE THE DEPRESSION HAS A LARGE CIRCULATION AND IS MOVING OVER A REGION OF WARM OCEAN...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THE DEPRESSION TO REACH TROPICAL STORM STATUS AT ANY TIME. ANOTHER PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO CHECK THE SYSTEM EARLY SUNDAY. THE OVERALL CIRCULATION APPEARS TO BE MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS...AND THIS MOTION IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY MOVING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MIDDLE-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED EAST OF THE BAHAMAS. IN 24 HOURS OR SO...AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE WILL LIKELY KICK THE SYSTEM NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD NORTHERN FLORIDA. THEREAFTER...THE CYCLONE SHOULD BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MID-LATITUDE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND BECOME EXTRATROPICAL. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MOST OF THE RELIABLE GUIDANCE. THIS FORECAST SCENARIO SUGGESTS THAT A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE NORTH AND CENTRAL FLORIDA WEST COAST AS EARLY AS SUNDAY MORNING. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 11/0300Z 23.4N 86.2W 30 KT 12HR VT 11/1200Z 24.6N 86.6W 35 KT 24HR VT 12/0000Z 26.5N 86.5W 40 KT 36HR VT 12/1200Z 28.0N 85.0W 45 KT 48HR VT 13/0000Z 29.5N 83.0W 35 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 14/0000Z 33.5N 77.0W 40 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 15/0000Z 39.5N 70.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 16/0000Z 48.5N 57.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL |
