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| #908433 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:46 AM 28.Oct.2017) TCPAT3 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen Intermediate Advisory Number 2A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182017 200 AM EDT Sat Oct 28 2017 ...SATELLITE-DERIVED WINDS SHOW THAT THE DISTURBANCE IS A LITTLE WEAKER... SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.9N 84.6W ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM SSW OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH ABOUT 330 MI...530 KM SSW OF HAVANA CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Isla de la Juventud, La Habana, Ciudad de la Habana, Matanzas, Cienfuegos, and Villa Clara Cuba * Northwestern Bahamas A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Central Bahamas A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 36 hours. Interests in the Cayman Islands, South Florida, and the Florida Keys should monitor the progress of this system. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 18.9 North, longitude 84.6 West. The system is moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h). An acceleration toward the northeast is expected to begin later today and continue through Sunday. On the forecast track, the system will move across western Cuba later today and move through the northwestern Bahamas tonight and early Sunday. Satellite-derived wind data indicated that maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the system is expected to become a tropical storm later today. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen is expected to produce the following rainfall totals: Northern Honduras: Additional 1 to 3 inches through this morning. The Cayman Islands, western and central Cuba, northern Bahamas: 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches through Sunday. These rainfall amounts may produce life threatening flash floods and landslides. South Florida, including the Keys: 2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches through Sunday. These rainfall totals may produce flash flooding, especially in urbanized areas. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the warning area in Cuba later today and the northwestern Bahamas tonight. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Berg |
