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| #908554 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:45 AM 29.Oct.2017) TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Philippe Intermediate Advisory Number 6A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182017 200 AM EDT Sun Oct 29 2017 ...PHILIPPE MOVING ERRATICALLY NEAR KEY WEST... SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.6N 82.0W ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM W OF KEY WEST FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 100 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cuban provinces of Isla de la Juventud, La Habana, Ciudad de la Habana, Matanzas, Cienfuegos, and Villa Clara * Northwestern Bahamas A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Craig Key to Golden Beach * Central Bahamas For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Philippe was located near latitude 24.6 North, longitude 82.0 West. Philippe has been moving erratically eastward near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn toward the northeast is expected during the next few hours, and a rapid motion toward the northeast is expected through Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Philippe will move across the Florida Keys or the southern tip of the Florida peninsula this morning, and across the northwestern Bahamas later today. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. However, Philippe is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone by Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) mainly to the east and southeast of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Across the northern Bahamas and south Florida including the Keys rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches are expected through today. These rainfall totals may produce flash flooding, especially in urbanized areas. Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are possible across portions of central Cuba, which may lead to life-threatening flash floods and mudslides in the higher terrain. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are likely occurring over portions of the warning area in Cuba. Tropical storm conditions are expected to occur in the warning area later this morning across the northwestern Bahamas. Tropical storm conditions are possible across portions of the Florida Keys and southeast Florida over the next several hours, and in the central Bahamas later this morning. TORNADOES: An isolated tornado or two is possible across far South Florida and the Florida Keys this morning. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch |
