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| #908572 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:51 AM 29.Oct.2017) TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Philippe Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182017 500 AM EDT Sun Oct 29 2017 Philippe is a very poorly organized system, and it is a stretch to call it a tropical cyclone at this time. The most trackable center passed near Key West a couple of hours ago and has moved into the Straits of Florida. Given that northwesterly winds are now observed over southeastern Florida, however, it is unlikely that this is a unique center of circulation. Therefore, the advisory location near the southern tip of Florida is more of a mean center position. Given that, the initial motion is a highly uncertain 070/15 kt. Regardless of its precise location, the overall system should turn northeastward to north-northeastward and accelerate considerably ahead of a high amplitude 500 mb trough near the United States east coast. Observations from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicated that the maximum sustained winds were near 40 kt over the Straits of Florida. Deep convection has been displaced well to the northeast of the estimated center by nearly 50 kt of deep-layer shear. The shear is forecast to increase even more, and Philippe is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours as it becomes embedded within a cold front that is approaching from the northwest. The above-mentioned trough is likely to induce some baroclinic intensification of the storm today and tonight. By Monday, however, the global models show the cyclone becoming absorbed into a larger and stronger extratropical low near New England. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0900Z 25.0N 81.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 29/1800Z 29.2N 77.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 30/0600Z 36.0N 72.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch |
