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| #90873 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:34 PM 11.Jun.2006) TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012006 500 PM EDT SUN JUN 11 2006 SEVERAL HOURS AGO...THE HURRICANE HUNTERS AGAIN MEASURED FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF CLOSE TO 50 KT...BUT IN A BAND THAT WAS EVEN FARTHER FROM THE CENTER THAN IN THE EARLIER PASS. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE BANDS OF HEAVIER SHOWERS HAVE BECOME DISPLACED FARTHER EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER THAN THEY WERE THIS MORNING. INDEED...THE SYSTEM HAS SOMEWHAT OF A SUBTROPICAL APPEARANCE AT THE MOMENT. BECAUSE THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED SINCE EARLIER TODAY...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE CYCLONE IS WEAKENING...AND DATA FROM THE NEXT MISSION OF THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS AROUND 0000 UTC COULD CONFIRM THIS SUSPICION. DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ABOUT AN INCREASE IN SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IN THE PATH OF ALBERTO. EVEN SO...THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE DO PREDICT SOME STRENGTHENING. GIVEN THE CURRENT TREND AND THE LESS THAN CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT... ONLY SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS SHOWN IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THE CIRCULATION IS BROAD...SO IT IS DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT A CENTER. THE FIXES HAVE BEEN BOUNCING AROUND A BIT...BUT OVERALL A SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION IS ESTIMATED. ASSUMING THAT ALBERTO IS ABLE TO HOLD TOGETHER VERTICALLY...A DEEPENING MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WOULD GRADUALLY TURN THE CYCLONE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. HOWEVER...THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE ARE NOT IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT. SOME MODELS...SUCH AS THE U.K. MET OFFICE GLOBAL MODEL...SHOW A WEAKENING SYSTEM THAT DOES NOT CROSS FLORIDA. THE GFS SHOWS AN ELONGATED LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC VORTICITY MAXIMUM THAT SPREADS ACROSS FLORIDA WITH A NON-TROPICAL-LOOKING AMPLIFICATION NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE STATE. BECAUSE OF THE DIVERGENCE IN MODEL GUIDANCE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE. HOWEVER SINCE THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE IN BANDS AS MUCH AS 200 N MI EAST OF THE CENTER WHICH COULD REACH THE COAST WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE CENTER...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS BEING ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE FLORIDA GULF COAST ON THIS ADVISORY. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 11/2100Z 24.5N 87.8W 40 KT 12HR VT 12/0600Z 25.4N 87.7W 45 KT 24HR VT 12/1800Z 26.5N 87.0W 45 KT 36HR VT 13/0600Z 27.8N 85.4W 45 KT 48HR VT 13/1800Z 29.0N 83.5W 40 KT 72HR VT 14/1800Z 33.0N 77.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 15/1800Z 39.0N 67.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 16/1800Z 46.0N 54.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL |
